Sunday, June 12, 2011

AT9 group stages day 2!

Did pretty well yesterday, here are my official choices for today!

Sunday June 12th

15:00 RAZOR Alliance vs. Wild Boars
15:20 Circle-of-Two vs. Outbreak
15:40 RvB - Red Federation vs. Babylon 5..
16:00 White Noise vs. SOLAR FLEET
16:40 Aggravated Assault.. vs. The R0NIN
17:00 Black Legion vs. Nulli Secunda
17:20 Lack of Imagination vs. B A N E


18:20 Pandemic Legion vs. Unaffiliated
18:40 Ushra'Khan vs. HYDRA RELOADED
19:00 Against ALL Authorities vs. Raiden.
19:20 Negative Ten vs. DarkSide.
19:40 Vanguard Imperium vs. Sev3rance
20:00 Perihelion Alliance vs. Paisti Syndicate
20:20 The G0dfathers vs. Get Off My Lawn
20:40 The Kadeshi vs. Wildly Inappropriate

Saturday, June 11, 2011

AT9, group stages, round 1.

So just because Rote Kapelle was put out in the second round, that's no reason to stop covering AT9!!!

Good fight to our opponents, our setup was banking that they would not bring the setup that they did, or the more common 3x tengu setup, our gamble failed and as you could tell, our setup didn't work out all too favorably in our favor.  Now this week has been busy for me so I will be guessing the match winners in the shortest fashion possible this time, while still retaining some thought as to how they did so far.

This should keep this post from taking 2 days to write as well, especially since AT9 starts up again in about an hour!

15:00 The Kadeshi vs. The G0dfathers - G0ds did well in their second match, I think the Kadeshi might be the slight underdogs here, but still manage to win.

15:20 Get Off My Lawn vs. Wildly Inappropriate - LAWN, gotta love those guys, fought back into it and will manage to win this one as well.

15:40 Perihelion Alliance vs. Vanguard Imperium - Perihelion made a believer out of me, 10v10's tend to be a bit harder than the 5v5 slugfests of the two last weeks and Vanguard did great the first two weeks as well, this will be a match to watch on the first day, if not the match to watch.

16:00 Sev3rance vs. Paisti Syndicate - I'm surprised to see Sev this far, Paisti is more their match and will carry the day this time.

16:20 Negative Ten vs. Against ALL Authorities - -A- has looked strong so far, I'll give this win to them.

16:40 Raiden. vs. DarkSide. - Raiden. came back in week two to win and advance, nice work gents.

17:00 Ushra'Khan vs. Pandemic Legion - What a bad matchup for the first round for U'K against PL.

17:20 Unaffiliated vs. HYDRA RELOADED - At least our Syndicate bro's made it through, okay they aren't our Bro's but have a very hard matchup vs Hydra, good luck.


18:20 Lack Of Immagination vs. Black Legion - Black Legion made it through! Should be a good fight.

18:40 Nulli Secunda vs. B A N E - meh, don't really care either way here, sorry guys.

19:00 Aggravated Assault.. vs. WE FORM VOLTRON - VOLTRON, I liked their name last year, nothing has changed.

19:20 POWER OF TWO vs. The R0NIN - Another good match I think, and definately one to watch, POWER I think will win, but barely.

19:40 White Noise vs. RvB - Red Federation - Yay red-fed!

20:00 Babylon 5.. vs. SOLAR FLEET - Crap, running out of time!

20:20 Circle-of-Two vs. RAZOR Alliance - Bring more shineys!

20:40 Wild Boars vs. Outbreak - Go Outbreak!

Friday, June 3, 2011

AT9 week 2 Predictions, now with soup!

Okay, I lied, no soup for you!

As mentioned week one was a good showing for more than one alliance. The matchups are out for the next week.  Pretty simple (for once) actually, each team was ranked, winners vs losers as the first ranking point, then points earned. Points earned were figured as follows;

Winning Team Points

The winner of each match gains a 25% bonus to the total ranking points scored. The points values for each ship are available in the match rules page.

Intentional Handicaps

If a team begins the match with less points value worth of ships than their opponent, and wins the match, they score extra ranking points equal to the difference in the two teams' values.

This put Paisti and Razor in the top two spots, 63.75 points each.

After that matches were done #1 vs #2, #3 vs #4, etc...

I'm operating under the assumption that if you go 1-1 and have around 70+ points you will be close to making it into the next round, 83+ points and you are nearly surely granted a spot in the next round.

Saturday June 4th (AKA the losers half of the bracket)

15:00 Dark Taboo vs Waterboard - Both teams were massacred last weekend, both losing without killing a single ship. Unless both teams come out with substantial handicaps, somewhere in the 10-20 point range, and win, nither of them will be making it on to the next rounds. Looking at reports shows that both teams suffered mostly at the hands of flights of ECM drones, perhaps signaling to fit a few smartbombs on their ships to weed off the pesky drone jamming swarm. Since taboo has a password protected killboard and I already covered how stupid I find that, Waterboard will win here but still fail to advance.

15:20 Controlled Chaos vs Chain of Chaos - This is one of those matches you can only hope happens. Chaos vs Chaos... Everyone's always getting these two alliances confused, myself included! It's a good thing that there won't be commentators looking at this match, I can only imagine the confusion then. Anyways, nither team fielded very good setups in the first round, an initial look at the NAWTI setup looked decent, sleipnirs supported by some ECM blackbirds, then I actually looked at the losses they have posted, and now I can understand why they didn't post all of their losses! Sleipnir was active-tank fit with large shield boosters (at least it was shield tanked), the Blackbirds tanked by a 800mm plate? No wonder they went down without a fight. Controlled Chaos didn't fare too much better, 2 x cerb, a rook and a Cyclone, even on paper that sounds like a weak setup that has-to depend on range as part of it's tank. OINK paid them due credit by wiping them off the field without a single loss. Once again, these teams will have to come in with a 10-20 point handicap to stand any chance of making it into the next round. Seeing their first setups, I'll give the nod to NAWTI, their setup looked to be at least headed in the right direction.

15:40 Adeptus Arbetus vs Legion of the Damned - Adeptus came to the first fight wholly unprepared, and apparently for good reason, after suffering a massive corp-theft and loss of their FC the day before their match against AAA. While AAA might have been involved, I think the tourney just made an easy scapegoat for the saboteur and a nice excuse for the loss in the first round. Unlike Adeptus, Legion of the Damned showed up with a ballsy, good setup, centering around two Machariels, unfortunately, they faced a setup like that's worst nightmare, a TD heavy team that killed the effectiveness of the Machariels to lay down damage at range, or even in close. With the weight of experience on their side I think Legion has a chance to field and win with a handicapped team and get them close to advancing into the next round.

16:00 Corcoran State vs Reverberation Project - Corcoran State lost in what appeared to be a close match against B A N E, even though they didn't manage to kill anything, they held on close to the end, their last ship falling with inside a minute left in their match. Their setup in the first round seemed solid but was defeated by the strong turtle power of the Widow led team they faced. Reverberation Project on the other hand, had no such luck, facing off against a minmatar heavy setup that made short work of the tech 1 BC's and support, easily clearing the field of them while they were unable to kill anything. Both teams here will need to field handicapped setups in order to advance to the next round, but I am not sure either will do so. My bet is Corcoran state comes out with a win but does not advance.

16:20 United Front Alliance vs The R0NIN - UFA, fresh off their crippling loss to G0ds will, unshockingly, have to fight with a handicap to stand any chance of making the next round, but so will the R0NIN after their loss to Ushra'Khan. I have to admit I was surprised that Ushra won in that fashion, especially after I picked against them, but the R0NIN made a few mistakes in that match, their rook leaving the ring, thus turning the match on it's ear. After looking at UFA's losses, including a armor tanked Cyclone in their first match I feel pretty confident choosing the R0NIN this time, though it will be interesting to see if they will arrive at the match with a large handicap in the hopes of making it to the next round.

16:40 Clockwork Pineapple vs Transmission Lost - Well GROON you just HAD to let me down didn't you. Our Syndicate sparring partners lost while facing a very unconventional active tanking, or at least heavily tanked Scimitar that absorbed their Tengu's fire with ease, while still having the reps to keep the rest of the RAZOR fleet they faced alive when they tried to change primaries. Transmission Lost on the other hand lost in a very fast match against a ECM and minmatar heavy setup that jammed and crushed their HAC based setup with ease. In one of the rare cases so far where a team without a logistics ship was able to beat a team with one, largely due to the pair of EAF's fielded by the Paisti Syndicate. I think GROON shows up with another solid setup and we have a good fight here, but both will once again have to field a handicapped setup in order to advance to the next round.

17:00 Dead on Arrival vs Morsus Mihi - DOA brought a solid setup into the first match, but ended up facing the scissors to their paper. Two key components of the DOA setup, both fielded by the Curse, being TD's and Neuts were pretty useless against the cap independent team they faced, and soon they were all removed from the field, but the opposing Tengu's. MM on the other hand showed up with a Logistics Tengu, that was primaried first and removed quickly, once that lynchpin was removed from their setup, they barely managed to kill a destroyer before they finished dying. Both teams scored 2 points in the first round, and will need to operate at a handicap to stand a chance of making it through. A win plus a handicap seems a little much to overcome but stranger things have happened. I think MM's experience will get them the win, but it will be once again interesting to see if they come with a handicapped team.

17:20 The Star Fraction vs Smacked Alliance - I was honestly sad to see the Star Fraciton do so poorly in the first round, because it meant that there was little chance we would be facing them in round two or that they would advance past that. Their dual Curse setup brought too much EWAR and not enough DPS, especially when their EWAR proved mostly ineffective against the Tengu/Loki combination they were fighting. They did manage to kill off a single destroyer before falling, netting them 2 points. Smacked brought a solid setup, one that would have suffered heavily at the hands of the 2 Curse's SF brought last time, but found another enemy in a trio of Tengu's. Their Sleipnir setup had a hard time breaking any of the Tengu's they faced, losing to the trio while managing to eliminate just one of the opposing destroyers. Once again both teams will have to look to deploying handicapped setups to have a chance at advancing. Honestly with SF's history in the last two or so AT's Smacked has a good chance of advancing to the next round, even with a handicapped setup.

18:20 Test Alliance Please Ignore vs RvB - Red Federation - Just two points prevented the penultimate match of Red Fed vs Blue Republic. Instead Red lands up with a tough match against a TEST team that was surprised in the first weekend by a trio of Tengu's used by Brick Squad. Their trio of Gila faction cruisers were only able to remove the opposing destroyer before succumbing to missile fire. Red fed faced off against a menacing pair of rattlesnakes fielded by our next opponent, Perihelion Alliance. Their tier 1 and 2 BC's were unable to put much of a dent into the faction battleships before dropping, only able to remove the Rattler support, scoring 8 points. TEST will show up in force again, looking to win with a handicap setup if they want to have any chance of advancing, while Red Fed has marginally more points, it means that they can afford to handicap less and with a win still stand a chance at advancing.

18:40 The Conglomeration of Ill Advised Ideas vs RvB - Blue Republic - The Conglomeration faced a tough 5 man BC setup in the first round, their shield tanking Rupture, claymore and Scimitar fleet was made short work of, folding to the CVA fleet, but not without killing a single Cyclone. Blue Republic fought hard against Outbreak. but we unable to come up with a win in their match of drakes vs Tengu's. The Blue setup was much better than the comparable Conglomeration setup, and with the 12 points from the kill of the basilisk, means they will not have to handicap much, if at all to make it to the next round.

19:00 The SPACE POLICE vs Northern Coalition. - The Police pulled together 14 points in their loss to near system rivals Neg10 in a battle of Cyclones vs Tengu's. That 14 points will be helpful but they will still need a win in order to have a chance to advance. The matches from this point on will rely less and less on handicap setups to advance, and starting here there is a good chance that either team will field a full 50 points. Northern Coalition squared off against newcomers Bacon and LOST. Though to be honest their Dual Rook setup failed in the way most ECM setups will eventually fail, that being a missed jam means a lost ship, not to mention very low DPS. I think the SPACE POLICE will have more drive to win this match.

19:20 Mos Vape Heavy Industries vs Sev3rance - Apparently Mos Vape can't add very well, or just have issues counting to 50. Their first setup was worth 53 points and cost them the match, even if the skillful piloting of the Kadeshi team hadn't already defeated them. Mos ended up with 17.5 points, half of their actual kill points once their infraction was discovered, leaving them with not only a loss but significantly less points that they would have otherwise. I think the penalty wasn't steep enough, and they should have lost all points gained. In any case, Sev3rance faced a close match but lost to yet another triple Tengu setup, despite nearly winning against them with the craft use of EC- Drones. They did score 18 points in their loss and showed a lot of skill getting as close as they did.

19:40 Atlas. vs Get Off My Lawn - Atlas suffered a few piloting errors that ended up costing them their first match, but such is the breaks in the AT. They managed to kill a proteus and a destroyer to bring their total up to 18 points before being brought down first by a burnt out MWD and then by a boundary violation. LAWNs first match went the distance, lasting the full 10 minutes before Raiden. pulled away with a victory. LAWN's setup was solid but ultimately unable to defeat the Logi backed Tengu setup fielded by Raiden. If Atlas continues to make mistakes my money is on LAWN.

20:00 Capital.Punishment vs Black Legion - Well the Maraner led cap.pun team let me down once already and it turns out that it was due to a likely spy in their ranks leaking their likely setup to their opponents. The interesting thing to see will be if that same spy or a different one leaks the next round's setup to Black Legion. Black Legion fought against RK last round and narrowly avoided beating us, but still scored 20 points. Both teams need a win in order to advance, and this will likely be a brutal match, if a bloody one, only the winner will advance.

20:20 Babylon 5.. vs Ishuk-Raata Enforcement Directive - Babylon 5.. brought the 3 tengu setup and managed to lose with it, one of the only teams to bring that setup and lose. They still managed to kill a few ships, but ended up losing, somehow, allegedly because they didn't move their Tengu's off 0 from the warp in. I-RED on the other hand fought a long and bitter battle, they ended up barely losing with a very unique 2 Loki, Oneiros setup, against a dual Mach setup. In the end the simple ability of the I-RED team to field something unexpected and still do well with their setup vs a solid Mach setup, in addition to scoring 29 points to Babylon 5..'s 25 lends me to think I-RED will win the match, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

20:40 Majesta Empire vs GoonSwarm - Majesta fought what was one of the closest and likely most heartbreaking matches, losing by just 12 points to the White Noise. Team, after white noise managed to come from behind to kill a Sleipnir and a Dramiel and take the points lead. Majesta fielded a solid setup, thankfully not more Tengu's, instead opting for Sleipnir, and canes with some support. Goons on the other hand brought Sleipnirs with logi support but still fell in a very close match to yet another Tengu setup. They did manage to score 34 points, leaving them within striking distance to get into the next round with a solid win in this round. I'll stick with Goons here, and wish them luck against ME.

Sunday June 5th (AKA the Winners half)

15:00 Perihelion Alliance vs Rote Kapelle - Perihelion did a great job in their first match showing up with a very unusual setup that while low DPS managed to take out Red Fed and never truly had their tanks tested. They will be a tough opponent for us, having just barely won our match against Black Legion. We are both experienced Tournament teams so it really will come down to skill. In the past neither team has showed up with the same setup twice, so we will have to see if that trend continues. Once again I definitely choose RK!

15:20 Raiden. vs The Obsidian Front - Raiden. fought out a win from a tough match against LAWN, their Tengu setup performing in much the same way as they intended, but still made some strong errors, one of their pilots burning out their missile launchers well before the end of the fight, costing them a decisive victory in the process. The Obsidian Front had a inside track on the win after securing the setups of their Foes pre-match. Admittedly this advantage stood them in good stead, and their dual Golem setup was still strong, up until one of their members made a similar overheating mistake as the Raiden Tengu pilot, only with midslots instead of high. It's these kinds of mistakes that can cause lost matches, so it will be interesting to see who cleans up best in this round. My thought is Raiden will put up the stronger showing.

15:40 White Noise vs The Initiative - White Noise fought a bloody, bloody battle against their first round opponents, leaving just a Dramiel on the field opposing their Proteus. They won in points and edged close to making it into the second round regardless of a win or a loss in the second round if the battle is again very bloody. With 57.5 points, white noise will likely only need 30ish more points to guarantee a spot in next weekend, and 20 to be on the cusp. In the last match of last weekend The Initiative faced off against a similarly setup opponent, Logistics and Tengus, but was able to dominate the field with more effective calls from their still intact FC. They swept the fight, 50-0, and now are in a great position to advance, needing roughly 20 points to make it into the sweet spot to advance. It will be interesting to see if both teams come for the complete kill or go for more turtle based setups designed to get them their points and get out. It's a real toss-up, but I think in a close, and bloody match that Init. will win, but White noise will score enough points to advance as well.

16:00 Circle-of-Two vs Wild Boars - I view Circle-of-Two as one of AT9's favorites, they stood out in round one, crushing their opponents while taking no losses, their 5 S(scimitar, sleipnirs, sabers) setup proving to be effective and devastating against a curse/Logi backed team on the other side. Wild Boars came into round one as an unknown to me but quickly proved themselves against Controlled Chaos fielding the only two Myrmidons I think in the tourney. They managed to wipe the CC team pretty easily, after the CC team made some mental mistakes, like moving before the match and going outside the arena. Even if they hadn't made those mistakes Boars would have won that fight. I'm going to side with the favorites, though every part of my under-dog body wants Boars to win. Both can advance with a bloody enough match.

16:20 Important Internet Spaceship League vs Against ALL Authorities - BDEAL aka IISL, had an easy time in the first round, crushing their opponents sleipnir setup with ease, everything seemed to be going their way, but a closer look at the setup they faced, shows some interesting anomalies, mainly active tanking Sleipnirs, 800mm plated Blackbirds, no luck on jams apparently. AAA went up against what I would say is one of the weaker setups fielded, Caldari Navy Hookbill, Celestius, Cynabal, Blackbird and Tengu, AAA had no problem powering through that assorted mess and cruised into this round with the maximum amount of points. BDEAL and AAA face much tougher opponents in this round and will have to prove their setups against a much more difficult foe, but with a bloody battle both sides could advance. Even though the AAA guys we fought last year are no longer with AAA I'll still root for them.

16:40 Unaffiliated vs B A N E - I'll be rooting for my Syndicate brosefs in the Unaffiliated after they cruised through the first round without a single loss, but they will face tough opposition in B A N E who also made it through the first round without a loss. Bane fielded the only Widow we have seen so far while Unaffiliated brought another unorthodox setup that worked well, things will have to change on both setups if they are brought again, but it will be good match.

17:00 Electric Monkey Overlords vs The G0dfathers - EMOOOOOOO, okay okay I'm done. I-CUT, I think, is their ticker, and they proved it by cutting out the chances of their opponents in week one, their Minmatar setup cleaned the field, leaving only a Echo of ECHO behind when they were done. Look I can do cheesy, bad commentary too, I should apply next year. G0ds brought a 5 man 5 tier 1 BC setup, one of the few brought, and had tremendous success against their opponents, overwhelming them with EC drones and DPS. Both teams did very well in their fights so it will be interesting to see what will happen with this matchup, I think EMO will pull the upset here and continue on to the next round. Like the rest of these high-scoring teams, G0ds can advance with a bloody match, needing just 20ish points to secure a spot in the next round.

17:20 Ushra'Khan vs Ignore This. - Ushra pulled through, my Minnie brosefs slid past the first round with ease, employing dual Sacri's, logistics and some support to clear the field, showing those dirty Amarr how to fly those shiny ships. Ignore this was hard to ignore (there I go again) in their first victory, while they did lose a single ship to DOA, they managed to wipe the field and move on with authority, Fielding yet another variation on the ever-popular Tengu setup. I'll be pulling for Ushra to continue on, though Ignore This has a great chance to make it to next weekend if they can eek out a few points against whatever Ushra brings to the field.

18:20 Vanguard Imperium vs Intrepid Crossing - So let me try to get this right for once, VI, who hold some southern sov, in and around Querious and Delve(thanks anonymous) did a great job taking out MM in week one. Their solid setup of Sleipnirs backed by a logi had little trouble with the MM Cyclone setup and has left them in great shape to advancing to the next round, while a win would be nice to seal the deal, it is not required. With as few as 10-20 points and a loss they still stand a good chance to advance. IRC either lucked out or chose well (your choice of words) when they were pitted against Star Fraction in the first weekend. The Tengu and Loki combination they selected was easily able to down the two curse, logi and bomber setup used by the Star Fraction. It will be a tough matchup between these two as they square off in round 2, both sides can advance with a bloody battle. I think IRC has the slight advantage here, but I'm going to go with VI instead since I did such a shit job of researching them last time, apparently.

18:40 P0WER OF TWO vs Brick Squad - P0WER brought 3 tengu's and a Destroyer as cannon-fodder, they lost the Dessy early in the match but easily swept the rest of the hostile field of the 5 S's. The three man Tengu setup looks to be one of the strongest fielded and proved it time and again against varied opposition. Brick brought the exact same loadout, down to the Cormorant. It will be strange to see them bring separate setups after having so much luck with the three tengu's, in a close match I'll choose Brick.

19:00 Curatores Veritatis Alliance vs Outbreak - CVA, the dirty RPers! Used converted Minmatar ships to push their opponents into an early grave, their 3 Cyclone, 2 Ferox setup brushing off all but one loss, eliminating their foes. Their setup was solid, obviously, but their piloting was alo good, using their ships and drones to the best effect, and coming away with a win. Outbreak opened their week one with a bang, using a variant on the Tengu setup to crush a similar drake setup. Neither one of these teams seem weak, and both made it to the round of 16 at least, last year before being eliminated. In a bloody battle that ends up seeing both teams advance I think that Outbreak squeaks away with a victory.

19:20 Negative Ten vs Bacon Fortress Gaming Syndicate - NEG10 showed up as well with a two Tengu setup, managing to pull out a solid win against their first round opponents despite losing some of their ships. Bacon surprised me by beating NCdot and turning out to not be an alt alliance, seems I've been wrong a lot. Bacon fielded the dual Sacri setup with a Logi further buffering the t2 resists. I'm not going to be surprised again, and think Bacon will come out just ahead in this fight.

19:40 The Kadeshi vs Aggravated Assault - The Kadeshi fought the illegal points setup(53) in the first round and still did well, their Vagabond based setup reducing the Megathron to low structure before the match ended with their opponents being penalized for their failure to count to 50. Aggravated Assault was another team to field the triple Tengu setup, their screening Dessy being their only loss in the first round. I think the Kadeshi will come up with a solid counter to the triple Tengu I anticipate to see from Aggravated assault.

20:00 Lack of Imagination vs Solar Fleet - Imagination used theirs and came up with 3 x Proteus instead of the 3x tengu look we saw so many times, they pulled out a win and buried their opposition, managing to take out the Machariels they were facing with a bit more ease. Solar, one of the few people to beat a 3xtengu setup slipped by their first round opponents, even if barely, their tactic worked. Imagination showed up with 3 x proteus and killed a Mach setup and Solar came with a Mach setup and beat 3 x tengu. Should be a good matchup, no matter what setups are brought. I like the Proteus and the Mach so there goes that Tie breaker, I'll go with Solar on a coin flip.

20:20 Nulli Secunda vs Wildly Inappropriate - Nulli squeezed by I-RED in the first week of fighting, in a close fight they proved to be the tougher, only their Machariel making it out of the fight in one piece. Nulli had to adapt on the fly to counter the I-RED setup, as it wasn't something anyone else saw coming. Wildly used the Tengu setup to relieve Goons of their ships, left with only a Tengu at the end, they still managed a victory. In this I will give the flexibility and thinking on their feet advantage to Nulli, who I anticipate will make this match a good one.

20:40 RAZOR Alliance vs Paisti Syndicate - RAZOR and Paisti took a one point handicap to be the highest rated teams on the ladder, and still managed to complete their matches without loss. RAZOR faced the trendy Tengu setup in their first match and still took no losses while eliminating the opposing team with ease. Paisti had a bit easier of an opposing setup, facing a dual ishtar setup, but still made it through without loss. Voting against RAZOR screwed me last week, and I won't let that happen again. I think Razor comes through in this battle just barely ahead but both teams advance on points to the next round.

Man these things take forever to write! Until next week, good luck to all. Hopefully RK will make it to the next round!