ATX - Week 2 predictions

Predictions for Week 2 are in some cases, much easier to predict than week 1, but in some cases that much more difficult. Mostly because good pilots, even with bad setups week one, if they are smart, can learn a lot from other setups and matches that preceed and followed their week one matches. Lots of times killmails and video's of the fights provide enough outline to reconstruct solid setups even if they aren't the originators of the idea.


While this is still possible to do from one year to the other, the changes made to modules and the new modules make this year a new game. So here we go with predictions for week 2! Just so we are clear


Little ATX jargon to whet your appetite...
ASB - Ancillary Shield booster
XLASB - Extra Large Ancillary Shield booster.
THD - Total Hell Death.


Saturday, July 7


15:00 Curatores Veritatis Alliance vs Noir. Mercenary Group - Well I guess we start with the lowest ranked and work our way to the highest. These two teams had both bad luck, and bad setups in the first round. CVA's First setup should have been fairly solid and ended up facing off against a near mirror image. Well all except for the Frigates. Gypsy brought tackle Merlins and CVA brought ECM merlins. Unfortunately their ECM just could not hold and their scimitar was tackled and killed before they could inflict any damage. They didn't lose all their ships, but it goes to show that the rules care about explosions. Not retained ships. Noir had some rough luck, with their AT captain apparently a no-show for their match. And that could be considered a high point in conjunction with the beating their recieved in the first round. In short they went up against an unexpected and very lucky rook setup, that their dual Ferox's could not break before being killed themselves. In a game of second chances, nothing short of Total Hell Death (THD, complete removal of the enemies team) can expect to move people on to the next round if they scored 0 points in the first round. It's a touch matchup but I think CVA has a good underlying team, and a semi strong setup. CVA narrowly win this not sure it actually matters


15:20 No Holes Barred vs Test Alliance Please Ignore - Speaking of teams who should probably copy off other more successful teams, we come to No Holes Barred, users of the bizzare, and ineffective armor Sleipnirs. Now for those who don't know, Sleipnirs are shield takers not because of an over-abundance of mid slots, having only 5, and 5 low slots, but because their ship bonus' heavily favor a shield tank, providing more shield per boost as one of the main bonus. I'm sure No Holes Barred knows this now, after losing in specacular fashion. Only part of that was because of the armor Sleipnirs, the other part was because of a solid setup by the opposing team. TEST Brought a solid setup for the first round, but were unable to break the tanks of the locally and remote repped Cyclones they faced in thier Sleipnirs. They were slowly ground under for a pretty convincing loss. TEST shouldn't shy away from what are obviously good setups, and come with another solid setup here. I think TEST will in this one convincingly. (I'm going to stop pointing out that it still might not matter because they scored 0 points in round one.


15:40 RAZOR Alliance vs Dirt Nap Squad. - Razor lost their first match, and I might attribute that completely to their failure to kill Darkside's Logi before their's went down. Otherwise it would have been an entirely different match. But you know how it is with "might" and "maybe." They don't get you very far. Dirt Nap Squad (DNS) on the other hand, brought what appears to be more of a "Don't die and maybe score some points" setup, rather than a "Kill some people." setup in the first week. it didn't work out so well, and despite the conservative setup, DNS still lost all their ships and didn't kill anything. RAZOR isn't a bad pvp Alliance, but then neither is DNS, despite being black ops droppers. They still do other things effectively. If DNS come more aggressive this time they might just be able to head off RAZOR and score a win.


16:00 Get Off My Lawn vs Wormholes Holders - Well LAWN's setup in round one, wasn't "BAD" it was just outclassed. Their Sabre's died very quickly after their logi went down and they didn't seem to get the memo about how good Sleipnirs are with Ancillary shield boosters, and fit a buffer tank instead. They went down in "record" time. Wormhole Holders Decided it was a good idea to show up with just three ships. Now their setup was probably pretty strong on paper. But they did seemingly zero research on how it woud work in practice and how they should warp in relative to the beacon. They lost in a big way, but at least they got the XL ASB memo. After a week of refinement and reviewing setups I think that LAWN will come out victorious here.


16:20 SOLAR FLEET vs BricK sQuAD. - SOLAR brought a Sleipnir setup from last year, fitting buffer tank instead of XLASB, and then had the unfortunate luck by running smack into a Rook based team, done right. Their lowslot ECCM wasn't up to the task of keeping them unjammed long enough to matter. BricK on the other hand brought a gank talos setup, only to run into a even more ganky Armor Vindicator setup. The total DPS was similar on both teams, however, the total EHP heavily favored their opponents, and it showed. Now just watching the matches since then, lots of teams have adapted both of these setups, but the Talos setup was rarely successful, bring brought in some form to the field 4 times, but only winning once, against the even more bland setup of Tengu's. Brick's Scimitar was also active afterburner tanked. Not a great counter to 90% webs of the Vindicator, especially when you try to dive in close with the scimitar. That speaks of bad piloting, while the SOLAR loss just looks like a bad matchup rather than bad piloting compacted with a bad matchup.


16:40 Capital Punishment. vs The Veyr Collective - Speaking of Vindicator setups... Capital Punishment. is sure aware of those. They were another set of adopters for the Talos, and it didn't end well. The Veyr Collective also brought a set of Talos' but these were armor tanked. And missing a single lowslot it looks like. They went smack up against the Nothern Coalition. Honestly it might have looked close but that one was over before it began. Capital Punishment I think has the advantage in this match.


17:00 Manifest Destiny. vs The Fourth District - Mainifest Destiny in round one brought Artillery Tornadoes. It'd be shallow to say, "And that's all I have to say." But really, that's pretty close to all I am going to say. Other than to break it down a bit so there is understanding as to why this is such a bad idea. The entire arena is 125km in radius, so sure a fight COULD happen at extreme ranges, however, warp ins are at a max of 50KM from the beacon. So the max distance that could happen would be 100km from each other. In that enagement range, 800mm Tornadoes can reach to 50-80 KM with Barrage L. And actually track to have an impact in the match. 1400mm arty Nadoes have no such luck. In addition Manifest brought their Tornadoes in at 50, so that's something, at least they were trying with their setup. Obviously, no luck. The Fourth District brought a risky Marauder setup in round one, Kronos that didn't seem to do that much damage or that much webbing (despite bonus' that seem to lend to those two things). They were torn up by a Ferox based team with really little trouble. Difficult to tell what happened there since I didn't see many web or DPS effects that should have been coming from the Kronos. Manifest Destiny has had success in the past so I am going to go with experience over the Fourth District.


17:20 Dystopia Alliance vs Pure Madness. - Dystopia decided to bring a pretty weak setup against a very strong (historically) Pandemic Legion team. They paid the price when their Widow, DCU tanked with multispecs died hard and fast in the first match. But one thing bothers me about their setup. I don't consider Dystopia a bad, by any means, alliance. In fact, they are full of old time PvPers and 'bitter-vets.' It makes me wonder about the meta game involved between PL and Dystopia. Pure Madness brought what should have been a solid Oracle setup, but they were tanked by some XLASB love from their opponents, and seemingly when they were just about to burn through one Sleipnirs charges on their XLASB, two of the Oracles got jammed out by ECM drones, reducing their DPS so the Sleipnir could easily tank them, and eventually, each one was hunted down and killed by a combination of good piloting from the Merlin they faced and then later by three sleipnirs pinning their opponents. This is the first matchup where teams actually scored points against their opponents, each team scored 2 points. Not sure how much of a help this is going to be in light of trying to advance. However total hell deaths are going to be required to move on. I really would like Pure Madness. to win here, but I am also really torn between them as tourney newcomers and underdogs and the skill and experience from a team like Dystopia. I'll take a gamble here and go with Pure Madness.


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18:20 Dark Taboo vs WHY so Seri0Us - I'm really not sure how Dark Taboo managed to kill anything with their setup, but I guess it's no surprise that they were able to kill some frigs, seeing as how the majority of their DPS was frigate sized. Here's a refresher, Taboo fielded Rooks, with small missile launchers and rocket launchers, as well as some daredevils with warp speed rigs. If there was a psyduck image I could post here, I would. WHY on the other hand, brought a ballsy setup for 2 Machariels and support, but faced a just as mean team of Sleipnirs. After some early match trade offs, the Machs ended up going down towards the ends of the match. I'm just so disappointed with the setup Dark Taboo fielded in the first round that I just can't pick them in the second.


18:40 Lone Star Partners vs Bruderschaft der Pilger - Lone star brought a pretty interesting mix of setups and ships to the first match. Their Oneiros was XLASB fit and had 3 large reps, but their smaller ships didn't have the buffer to benefit from the armor repairs and died quickly. The Vigilants's had TD's and ECCM, but no injectors, leaving them vulnerable to neuts at the very least. Bruderschaft showed up with a solid setup, but faced off against a pair of Vindicators. Even the XLASB tank isn't enough to deal with that much DPS and their ships left the field in a hurry. But the important thing to focus on from their match was that their setup was a well thought out one,  but was facing some serious trouble any way you look at Vindicators. They did make some pretty critical mistakes. You don't always want to start at 0 in a sleipnir based team, and this is exactly why. The Vindicators were able to land web at the start of the fight on both Sleipnirs, and remove them before really anything could happen. Had the Sleipnirs started further away, the result might not have been different, but it might have been closer. Lone Star looks like it is interested in out of the box setups, but Bruderschaft have proven in round one that they can at least comp a decent setup. Pretty much a toss up here for me. I will go with Bruderschaft.


19:00 Choke Point vs Exiled Ones - Choke Point was matched up again Fluffeh in the first round, so I have probably seen this fight almost as much as the Rote fight from weekend one. They brought a good setup, two machs with a few jamming frigs and a daredevil to tackle down targets. However their execution was less than stellar. Their focused fire was poor, and they were unable to go for any of the weaker targets until later in the fight. Exiled Ones on the other hand, showed up with what on the surface appeared to be a good setup. But then the killmails started rolling in to reveal Tengu's not only with an active tank, but with a large shield boosting active tank and injectors.They were able to volley fire some opponents off the field, but their setup was a confusingly bad one. Choke point rebounds here I think, and is able to score some much needed points, hopefully combining with their current 8 points.


19:20 Kill It With Fire vs RED.OverLord - I just love teams that bring Curse. And Kill it with Fire did just that, even if it didn't work out for them vs the FA Sleipnir setup, it is still a good move. EWAR really decided this fight, with the Kill it ships losing a lot of time behind Kitsune jams. RED.O brought a Tengu setup, but it was very unsuccessful vs a very strange dual tanking Mach setup that managed to outlast the Tengu DPS during their XLASB reload cycles. Historically the Tengu setup's haven't returned solid results, but have been either the punchers or the punching bags. In this case the punching bag. I'm going to side with the team that brought a curse last time.


19:40 PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY vs ROMANIAN-LEGION - Pizza, well PZZA, I have to say I was quite surprised by their fight in the first weekend. Obviously fighting directly against them might have something to do with that, but their setup was a strong kiting setup, even if they were in Drakes. Traditionally a hated ship in the tournament. Romanian-Legion showed up with an expensive but ultimately dead setup, since they decided it was a good idea to warp a pair of Machariels to 0 at the start of the match, they were quickly tackled and broken. The exchange at close range was brutal, and they were able to take down a few ships before losing. Like I've said before, having a decent setup is worthless without understanding how and where to warp into a fight. Here's a hint, it's rarely @0. I think Pizza shows up with a delivery this match and with 12 points and a strong showing here they have a good chance to make it into round 2.


20:00 The Kadeshi vs Shadow Cartel - It's a match where neither team really deserves to be in the loser bracket. The Kadeshi, I chose them in round 1, and then they made the one piloting mistake that cost them, and lost one of their Tengu's to a boundary violation. The ships they were fighting were barely unable to tank three Tengu's worth of damage, and with the loss of one of their Tengu's like that, their damage went from winning the fight levels to losing the fight. They did manage to net a cool 14 points by killing a Vigil and a Tier 3 BC (Talos). Shadow Cartel had a run of bad luck before their match even STARTED, losing a lynch pin Proteus to tragic disconnect moments before their match. Down one ship they were fought under, but still managed to rope in a few points. In a match of two good teams that lost, one through piloting error, and the other through computer error, I think both with be forced to come out swinging for the fences to make their 14 points count the most. In a very close match that could go either way, the Shadow Cartel is going eek out a victory, taking their 14 points plus this match into the group stages. It could easily be the other way around if the Shadow Cartel underestimates The Kadeshi at all.


20:20 Sleeper Social Club vs Babylon 5.. - SSC brought in some drone love in the first round, and was one of a few teams to do so. Their Ishtars threatened to blot out the sun with drones, but were tackled towards the end of the match, to just barely, lose on points to the Fearless team. Overall they brought a solid, supported setup, and scored 16 points for their trouble. Babylon 5.. brought a pair of heavily tanked Vargur's with a Webloki for support. Unfortunately for them, the Nulli team they fought brought a ton of ECM drones and were able to lock down the Vargurs enough to gain a decisive advantage. Oh, and the Babylon 5.. team brought 3 ships to a six ship match, because of this the ECM weak Marauders were swarmed with drones and the failure to fit a smartbomb on the Vargur's are very telling for their next match. I think SSC will win this one.


20:40 Black Legion. vs Perihelion Alliance - This has to be the best match of the day, how sweet they save it for last. Both teams have done well in the past... MEN. Oh how you let me down in the first round! Honestly your setup wasn't bad at all, you were just outflown by the drone swarm and fast tackle of your opponents, who removed your Logi before the match even really got heated, depriving you of the rep you needed for your buffer fit Ferox's. Black Legion still rallied and got the most points of the losing brackets, at 20 points. Perihelion brought up the second most with 16 points (tied with Babylon 5..) In round one Peri FACED a Vargur setup, and a tough loss. They brought a Proteus gank squad, but the hostile Vargurs were able to pick apart their reps at range, before focusing on the meat of the Proteus setup. Peri was just not able to grind down the rep and EHP of the Vargurs when it came time. Some questionable calls were made early on in their first match and that is usually the most telling. Solid FCing will usually slant the match. In a match I hate to choose a winner of, I will predict Perihelion goes through.




Sunday, July 8


15:00 Rote Kapelle vs Fluffeh Bunneh Murder Squad - Best match of the day. Totally! Okay okay, I'll tamper my Rote enthusiasm and predict this match objectively... Yeah right! So, Rote's setup had trouble with the Drake based kiting setup used by their first round opponents, but they were able to wrangle their targets down to score a win in the first round. Pretty much all Rote, including myself, will tell anyone who listens that getting the points we did isn't a bad thing, and we got what we wanted. Our opponents have the same number of points as we do, 37.5 so I am sure they are saying the same thing. Their initial setup was a bit of a hodge podge, focused around armor logistics and ECM, their Blackbird was really the unexpected hero of the fight. He kept most of the Griffins out of the fight, and pulled a mach to him, halfing the DPS for his teammates. The Deimos and Hurricane tanked the Mach damage well and put out enough DPS to secure points to gain the win. It should be no surprise that I think Rote has the chance to pull out a second win, but with 37.5 points each, both teams have a chance to make it through if they get some points in this match.


15:20 FEARLESS. vs Nulli Secunda - Lark and Fearless performed great in their match, holding onto a tough fought match against a Ishtar setup that could just as easily gone the other way, and looked like it would for a minute there. With 46.25 points Fearless must be pretty happy, but are likely less than happy about their second matching pair up vs Nulli. Nulli pushed through a pretty weak setup, both theirs and their opponents and brought home 41.25 points. This will be a critical match for both teams, where winning with some point or even losing with some points could move both of them through. In this match up I favor FEARLESS.


15:40 Gypsy Band vs Elysian Empire - Gypsy Band faced off against CVA in the first round and handed them a pretty decent loss, only giving up a few points from their setup of Sleipnirs and Merlins. They made some piloting mistakes, but showed up to the field at good ranges, and well led. Elysian empire arrived with a double rook setup that was mostly overlooked in week one despite the serveral victories it produced, and one horrible loss. Elysian Empire delivered a solid setup and didn't bother to copy the setup from alliances and tournaments previous. One has to give them some points for that, but be tempered by the fact that they fought against a likely leaderless and hasty setup in the Noir. team. How much does that count for against the Gypsy band after their good performance. I'm not sure. Tough call on this one without knowing the teams better I am going to go with Gypsy Band.


16:00 Mildly Intoxicated vs R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N. - Mildly Intoxicated surprised a lot of people, myself included when they came out on top of the Black Legion team in the first round. Their setup was a bit of an unconventional drone setup, but their tactical use of assigned drones definitely won them that match by removing the MEN. logistics ship before it could become a factor. R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N. used some real strange level of injunitiy, fitting XLASB Machariels with a supplementary armor tank to cover and repair damage when the XLASB were reloading. This in conjunction with solid piloting landed them a victory, and moved them into the winners bracket. Now will they stay here? I don't think so.


16:20 Goonswarm Federation vs Out of Sight. - Goons put on a show in round one. There's no doubt that this year their team has taken practicing and theory crafting as seriously as everyone else. Or they are doing a damn good job of trolling us all into believing that. Part of their convincing win was because the other team brought a brawler setup that just wasn't as good, and paid for it. That didn't change the fact that the Goons Vindicator based setup was a solid one. Out of Sight brought a under-shipped Sleipnir based four man setup. Strangely they are a statistical anomaly, bringing just four ships and winning against a 5 ship setup. I think the Goons arrive to win, and play for keeps, winning in the second round as well.


16:40 Dead Terrorists vs Team Liquid - If PL are the masters of the Minmatar rush by virtue of running it first and most successfully, then Dead Terrorist seem to be that origin point for the dual rook setup. In just match 2 of the first weekend, Dead Terrorists brought a setup that nobody had really had much success with, and cleared the floor of their opposition, handily disposing the often used Minmatar rush setup without a single loss. Team Liquid went to the other end of the extreme, and refined a mediocre setup, slapped some more speed on there and flew around abusing some armor tanked Sleipnirs. A good first showing, but it's unclear if that was more due to the caliber of their opponents, or due to their setup. Well now it's their chance to prove themselves against a historically dominant team in Dead Terrorists. I'm backing their play.


17:00 DarkSide. vs Verge of Collapse - DarkSide utterly rolled their opponents in the first round, using a unique setup that hasn't been duplicated since. Even after having reportedly lost some of their "key membership" they know how to put on a good show. I noted some good piloting but their setup was just so much better than the Brutix based setup they faced, that it was really never a contest. I look forward to see what they bring this time. Verge of Collapse scored with their first matchup, coming up against Tornadoes fitting artillery and otherwise poor choices. Once their Sleipnirs ran down the range, fought through some webs, and landed tackle, it was all over. From there on it was just cleanup. The VoC team showed well in the first round, but was never really in danger the entire match. Against DarkSide it is going to be a totally different story. I think a very close story. But in close matches, logic says to go with experience and proven ability.


17:20 The G0dfathers vs THE R0NIN - Battle of the Zero names! Couldn't have planned this one better myself. G0dfathers nuked TEST out of the water in the first round, but it was hardly because TEST brought a bad setup, instead it was because G0dfathers just looked way more on the ball and competent than TEST in the fight. They hope to roll that right on into their match today vs another team with a zero in their name, THE R0NIN. R0NIN punched DNS pretty hard, using a Black ops battleship as the baseline for their setup, they were able to eventually break down the DNS heavy tank setup. I'm rooting for the R0NIN here, the better of the two zero teams...


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18:20 Suddenly Spaceships. vs RvB - Suddenly Spaceships, more like Suddenly DPS! Last match Seldarine and friends met up with another high DPS fit and utterly melted it. Their Vinidcator setup was even more effective against the blaster rush setup they faced than they could have hoped for. In fact, they tore right through them hardly looking back. Coincidentally, another fast-finisher, RvB, in fact a VERY fast finisher, is matched up against them. In the first round RvB dismantled their opponents, and look to do the same here, but keep in mind that both teams got enough points in the first round that all they really need are a few points in this round to keep them in the hunt for a position in the group rounds. Good luck to both sides.


18:40 Ev0ke vs The Gorgon Empire - Ev0ke had what I could call a clean THD in their first round. Their opponents made some mistakes (warping in their tackle/web loki at 0 to support their Maelstroms, who also warped in at 0, but Ev0ke took their mistakes and capitalized fully. Their setup was solid, if not a little overused by this time in the tourney. The Gorgon Empire surprised a lot of people with the manner in which they removed their round 1 opponents from the field. Their quick, brutal THD victory was impressive and well directed. This is a solid matchup, but it still is a tourney vet vs a relative newcomer. In a coin flip decision I am going to guess The Gorgon Empire surprises once again and comes up with a win.


19:00 Against ALL Authorities vs Northern Coalition. - AAA Cruised through their first match, losing only a single merlin in exchange for two Mach kills and a convincing win. They, as well, flew the favored Sleipnir setup, and flew it well, using damp merlins to keep damage off of their Sleipnirs while focusing fire to bring down first the hostile support and then the meat of the other team. Northern Coalition brutalized their opposition, also fielding the quite popular Sleipnir setup. Wonder if this will be another mirror match where both sides bring the same setup. Might not even be uncommon to see that on the second day, once certain setups start looking favorable. In any case, AAA has had their hands full in the past week, as have NC. so I am not sure who will have had the time to lock down some practices. All told I think I like AAA in this match.


19:20 Alpha Volley Union vs Pandemic Legion - Alpha Volley Union in the first weekend brought a unique setup that I am going to call "Amarr rush." Consisting of 2 Abso's, 1 Oneiros, 2 Griffins and a Rifter. Their opponents in Dark Taboo were either up way too late and started the match in shit fit ships or were just outclassed from the start, or perhaps even both. Alpha Volley was able to remove their opponents quickly either way, and secure a win. UNFORTUNATELY they are going up against Pandemic Legion, people who know what setup you are going to bring before you even bring it. Never a good place to be in the second round. Alpha Volley will have to pull out a trick of an entirely different nature against Pandemic. I wish them luck.


19:40 Agony Empire vs Exodus. - Agony Empire had a strong showing in the first week, obviously, scoring a total hell death, mainly due to their opponents being terrible (remember LSB and injector fit Tengu) than any chance to show real ability. The Agony Setup was more designed to not lose, than to win as convincingly as it did. In the second week they go against Exodus. As predicted Exodus did very well in the first week, fielding not one but two Vindicators, a setup where one seems to have been enough to rake in easy wins, well two was no different. This is going to be another one of those vaunted good fights, but how much of that will be decided before either team even makes it to the field, I'm not sure. I think Exodus has a great chance here for an upset win.


20:00 Heretic Nation vs Raiden. - The saviors of mother Amamake triumphed in round one, but I'm not sure it was due to any great skill on their part, and more of a major blunder on the part of their opponents. However despite their opponents shortcomings, Heretic nation did show up with a solid setup and to their credit, they didn't stop their opponents while they were making a mistake, and instead capitalized on it for a major win. Raiden. faced another poor opponent, who's choice of tracking disruptor on their Vigilants made about as much sense as bringing the Sabre's and then using them as tackle for Raiden. In a battle of who had the worse first round opponent I think Heretic Nation shows off their chops.


20:20 Tribal Conclave vs Fatal Ascension - Tribal Conclave led the charge against an understrength Shadow Cartel team in the first round. Had they faced off against a full powered team the results might have, and I would even venture to say, would have, been different. Vs Fatal Ascension who's first round effort made quite the CFC cheer, after wiping the field clean of opposition, but not without loss and I might add, not without some serious close calls. In the end I don't think it matters much, Tribal Conclave is meeting a surging FA team after an easy win. Only a solid setup from back to front will save them now, and I think FA has the answer.


20:40 HUN Reloaded vs THE SPACE P0LICE - HUN showed some later alliances how a Vargur should be fit with their first round victory. Smartbombs and neuts alongside Dual 650mm guns proved to be all the DPS they needed, along with a XLASB on each to mitigate incoming damage. I was foolish to choose against them in the first round. THE SPACE P0LICE managed to take out The Kadeshi, another favorite after performances years past in their first round, and in an impressive manner, arriving in four Talos' and removing the three opponent Tengu's with ease, losing only a pair of ships in the process. Helped a little by the bad piloting from the Kadeshi, running out of bounds and all that. Either way, I felt bad for not following my guy last week and betting against HUN, I won't make that mistake again, but I think I might be wrong anyways!


That concludes weekend #2, days 3 and 4 of Alliance tournament X (oh wait, they haven't been played yet, damn)


Up next : Results from the second weekend, predictions for the next weekend and a possible surprise post somewhere in between!

AT9 week 2 Predictions, now with soup!

Okay, I lied, no soup for you!

As mentioned week one was a good showing for more than one alliance. The matchups are out for the next week.  Pretty simple (for once) actually, each team was ranked, winners vs losers as the first ranking point, then points earned. Points earned were figured as follows;


Winning Team Points

The winner of each match gains a 25% bonus to the total ranking points scored. The points values for each ship are available in the match rules page.

Intentional Handicaps

If a team begins the match with less points value worth of ships than their opponent, and wins the match, they score extra ranking points equal to the difference in the two teams' values.

This put Paisti and Razor in the top two spots, 63.75 points each.

After that matches were done #1 vs #2, #3 vs #4, etc...

I'm operating under the assumption that if you go 1-1 and have around 70+ points you will be close to making it into the next round, 83+ points and you are nearly surely granted a spot in the next round.

Saturday June 4th (AKA the losers half of the bracket)

15:00 Dark Taboo vs Waterboard - Both teams were massacred last weekend, both losing without killing a single ship. Unless both teams come out with substantial handicaps, somewhere in the 10-20 point range, and win, nither of them will be making it on to the next rounds. Looking at reports shows that both teams suffered mostly at the hands of flights of ECM drones, perhaps signaling to fit a few smartbombs on their ships to weed off the pesky drone jamming swarm. Since taboo has a password protected killboard and I already covered how stupid I find that, Waterboard will win here but still fail to advance.

15:20 Controlled Chaos vs Chain of Chaos - This is one of those matches you can only hope happens. Chaos vs Chaos... Everyone's always getting these two alliances confused, myself included! It's a good thing that there won't be commentators looking at this match, I can only imagine the confusion then. Anyways, nither team fielded very good setups in the first round, an initial look at the NAWTI setup looked decent, sleipnirs supported by some ECM blackbirds, then I actually looked at the losses they have posted, and now I can understand why they didn't post all of their losses! Sleipnir was active-tank fit with large shield boosters (at least it was shield tanked), the Blackbirds tanked by a 800mm plate? No wonder they went down without a fight. Controlled Chaos didn't fare too much better, 2 x cerb, a rook and a Cyclone, even on paper that sounds like a weak setup that has-to depend on range as part of it's tank. OINK paid them due credit by wiping them off the field without a single loss. Once again, these teams will have to come in with a 10-20 point handicap to stand any chance of making it into the next round. Seeing their first setups, I'll give the nod to NAWTI, their setup looked to be at least headed in the right direction.

15:40 Adeptus Arbetus vs Legion of the Damned - Adeptus came to the first fight wholly unprepared, and apparently for good reason, after suffering a massive corp-theft and loss of their FC the day before their match against AAA. While AAA might have been involved, I think the tourney just made an easy scapegoat for the saboteur and a nice excuse for the loss in the first round. Unlike Adeptus, Legion of the Damned showed up with a ballsy, good setup, centering around two Machariels, unfortunately, they faced a setup like that's worst nightmare, a TD heavy team that killed the effectiveness of the Machariels to lay down damage at range, or even in close. With the weight of experience on their side I think Legion has a chance to field and win with a handicapped team and get them close to advancing into the next round.

16:00 Corcoran State vs Reverberation Project - Corcoran State lost in what appeared to be a close match against B A N E, even though they didn't manage to kill anything, they held on close to the end, their last ship falling with inside a minute left in their match. Their setup in the first round seemed solid but was defeated by the strong turtle power of the Widow led team they faced. Reverberation Project on the other hand, had no such luck, facing off against a minmatar heavy setup that made short work of the tech 1 BC's and support, easily clearing the field of them while they were unable to kill anything. Both teams here will need to field handicapped setups in order to advance to the next round, but I am not sure either will do so. My bet is Corcoran state comes out with a win but does not advance.

16:20 United Front Alliance vs The R0NIN - UFA, fresh off their crippling loss to G0ds will, unshockingly, have to fight with a handicap to stand any chance of making the next round, but so will the R0NIN after their loss to Ushra'Khan. I have to admit I was surprised that Ushra won in that fashion, especially after I picked against them, but the R0NIN made a few mistakes in that match, their rook leaving the ring, thus turning the match on it's ear. After looking at UFA's losses, including a armor tanked Cyclone in their first match I feel pretty confident choosing the R0NIN this time, though it will be interesting to see if they will arrive at the match with a large handicap in the hopes of making it to the next round.

16:40 Clockwork Pineapple vs Transmission Lost - Well GROON you just HAD to let me down didn't you. Our Syndicate sparring partners lost while facing a very unconventional active tanking, or at least heavily tanked Scimitar that absorbed their Tengu's fire with ease, while still having the reps to keep the rest of the RAZOR fleet they faced alive when they tried to change primaries. Transmission Lost on the other hand lost in a very fast match against a ECM and minmatar heavy setup that jammed and crushed their HAC based setup with ease. In one of the rare cases so far where a team without a logistics ship was able to beat a team with one, largely due to the pair of EAF's fielded by the Paisti Syndicate. I think GROON shows up with another solid setup and we have a good fight here, but both will once again have to field a handicapped setup in order to advance to the next round.

17:00 Dead on Arrival vs Morsus Mihi - DOA brought a solid setup into the first match, but ended up facing the scissors to their paper. Two key components of the DOA setup, both fielded by the Curse, being TD's and Neuts were pretty useless against the cap independent team they faced, and soon they were all removed from the field, but the opposing Tengu's. MM on the other hand showed up with a Logistics Tengu, that was primaried first and removed quickly, once that lynchpin was removed from their setup, they barely managed to kill a destroyer before they finished dying. Both teams scored 2 points in the first round, and will need to operate at a handicap to stand a chance of making it through. A win plus a handicap seems a little much to overcome but stranger things have happened. I think MM's experience will get them the win, but it will be once again interesting to see if they come with a handicapped team.

17:20 The Star Fraction vs Smacked Alliance - I was honestly sad to see the Star Fraciton do so poorly in the first round, because it meant that there was little chance we would be facing them in round two or that they would advance past that. Their dual Curse setup brought too much EWAR and not enough DPS, especially when their EWAR proved mostly ineffective against the Tengu/Loki combination they were fighting. They did manage to kill off a single destroyer before falling, netting them 2 points. Smacked brought a solid setup, one that would have suffered heavily at the hands of the 2 Curse's SF brought last time, but found another enemy in a trio of Tengu's. Their Sleipnir setup had a hard time breaking any of the Tengu's they faced, losing to the trio while managing to eliminate just one of the opposing destroyers. Once again both teams will have to look to deploying handicapped setups to have a chance at advancing. Honestly with SF's history in the last two or so AT's Smacked has a good chance of advancing to the next round, even with a handicapped setup.

18:20 Test Alliance Please Ignore vs RvB - Red Federation - Just two points prevented the penultimate match of Red Fed vs Blue Republic. Instead Red lands up with a tough match against a TEST team that was surprised in the first weekend by a trio of Tengu's used by Brick Squad. Their trio of Gila faction cruisers were only able to remove the opposing destroyer before succumbing to missile fire. Red fed faced off against a menacing pair of rattlesnakes fielded by our next opponent, Perihelion Alliance. Their tier 1 and 2 BC's were unable to put much of a dent into the faction battleships before dropping, only able to remove the Rattler support, scoring 8 points. TEST will show up in force again, looking to win with a handicap setup if they want to have any chance of advancing, while Red Fed has marginally more points, it means that they can afford to handicap less and with a win still stand a chance at advancing.

18:40 The Conglomeration of Ill Advised Ideas vs RvB - Blue Republic - The Conglomeration faced a tough 5 man BC setup in the first round, their shield tanking Rupture, claymore and Scimitar fleet was made short work of, folding to the CVA fleet, but not without killing a single Cyclone. Blue Republic fought hard against Outbreak. but we unable to come up with a win in their match of drakes vs Tengu's. The Blue setup was much better than the comparable Conglomeration setup, and with the 12 points from the kill of the basilisk, means they will not have to handicap much, if at all to make it to the next round.

19:00 The SPACE POLICE vs Northern Coalition. - The Police pulled together 14 points in their loss to near system rivals Neg10 in a battle of Cyclones vs Tengu's. That 14 points will be helpful but they will still need a win in order to have a chance to advance. The matches from this point on will rely less and less on handicap setups to advance, and starting here there is a good chance that either team will field a full 50 points. Northern Coalition squared off against newcomers Bacon and LOST. Though to be honest their Dual Rook setup failed in the way most ECM setups will eventually fail, that being a missed jam means a lost ship, not to mention very low DPS. I think the SPACE POLICE will have more drive to win this match.

19:20 Mos Vape Heavy Industries vs Sev3rance - Apparently Mos Vape can't add very well, or just have issues counting to 50. Their first setup was worth 53 points and cost them the match, even if the skillful piloting of the Kadeshi team hadn't already defeated them. Mos ended up with 17.5 points, half of their actual kill points once their infraction was discovered, leaving them with not only a loss but significantly less points that they would have otherwise. I think the penalty wasn't steep enough, and they should have lost all points gained. In any case, Sev3rance faced a close match but lost to yet another triple Tengu setup, despite nearly winning against them with the craft use of EC- Drones. They did score 18 points in their loss and showed a lot of skill getting as close as they did.

19:40 Atlas. vs Get Off My Lawn - Atlas suffered a few piloting errors that ended up costing them their first match, but such is the breaks in the AT. They managed to kill a proteus and a destroyer to bring their total up to 18 points before being brought down first by a burnt out MWD and then by a boundary violation. LAWNs first match went the distance, lasting the full 10 minutes before Raiden. pulled away with a victory. LAWN's setup was solid but ultimately unable to defeat the Logi backed Tengu setup fielded by Raiden. If Atlas continues to make mistakes my money is on LAWN.

20:00 Capital.Punishment vs Black Legion - Well the Maraner led cap.pun team let me down once already and it turns out that it was due to a likely spy in their ranks leaking their likely setup to their opponents. The interesting thing to see will be if that same spy or a different one leaks the next round's setup to Black Legion. Black Legion fought against RK last round and narrowly avoided beating us, but still scored 20 points. Both teams need a win in order to advance, and this will likely be a brutal match, if a bloody one, only the winner will advance.

20:20 Babylon 5.. vs Ishuk-Raata Enforcement Directive - Babylon 5.. brought the 3 tengu setup and managed to lose with it, one of the only teams to bring that setup and lose. They still managed to kill a few ships, but ended up losing, somehow, allegedly because they didn't move their Tengu's off 0 from the warp in. I-RED on the other hand fought a long and bitter battle, they ended up barely losing with a very unique 2 Loki, Oneiros setup, against a dual Mach setup. In the end the simple ability of the I-RED team to field something unexpected and still do well with their setup vs a solid Mach setup, in addition to scoring 29 points to Babylon 5..'s 25 lends me to think I-RED will win the match, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

20:40 Majesta Empire vs GoonSwarm - Majesta fought what was one of the closest and likely most heartbreaking matches, losing by just 12 points to the White Noise. Team, after white noise managed to come from behind to kill a Sleipnir and a Dramiel and take the points lead. Majesta fielded a solid setup, thankfully not more Tengu's, instead opting for Sleipnir, and canes with some support. Goons on the other hand brought Sleipnirs with logi support but still fell in a very close match to yet another Tengu setup. They did manage to score 34 points, leaving them within striking distance to get into the next round with a solid win in this round. I'll stick with Goons here, and wish them luck against ME.

Sunday June 5th (AKA the Winners half)

15:00 Perihelion Alliance vs Rote Kapelle - Perihelion did a great job in their first match showing up with a very unusual setup that while low DPS managed to take out Red Fed and never truly had their tanks tested. They will be a tough opponent for us, having just barely won our match against Black Legion. We are both experienced Tournament teams so it really will come down to skill. In the past neither team has showed up with the same setup twice, so we will have to see if that trend continues. Once again I definitely choose RK!

15:20 Raiden. vs The Obsidian Front - Raiden. fought out a win from a tough match against LAWN, their Tengu setup performing in much the same way as they intended, but still made some strong errors, one of their pilots burning out their missile launchers well before the end of the fight, costing them a decisive victory in the process. The Obsidian Front had a inside track on the win after securing the setups of their Foes pre-match. Admittedly this advantage stood them in good stead, and their dual Golem setup was still strong, up until one of their members made a similar overheating mistake as the Raiden Tengu pilot, only with midslots instead of high. It's these kinds of mistakes that can cause lost matches, so it will be interesting to see who cleans up best in this round. My thought is Raiden will put up the stronger showing.

15:40 White Noise vs The Initiative - White Noise fought a bloody, bloody battle against their first round opponents, leaving just a Dramiel on the field opposing their Proteus. They won in points and edged close to making it into the second round regardless of a win or a loss in the second round if the battle is again very bloody. With 57.5 points, white noise will likely only need 30ish more points to guarantee a spot in next weekend, and 20 to be on the cusp. In the last match of last weekend The Initiative faced off against a similarly setup opponent, Logistics and Tengus, but was able to dominate the field with more effective calls from their still intact FC. They swept the fight, 50-0, and now are in a great position to advance, needing roughly 20 points to make it into the sweet spot to advance. It will be interesting to see if both teams come for the complete kill or go for more turtle based setups designed to get them their points and get out. It's a real toss-up, but I think in a close, and bloody match that Init. will win, but White noise will score enough points to advance as well.

16:00 Circle-of-Two vs Wild Boars - I view Circle-of-Two as one of AT9's favorites, they stood out in round one, crushing their opponents while taking no losses, their 5 S(scimitar, sleipnirs, sabers) setup proving to be effective and devastating against a curse/Logi backed team on the other side. Wild Boars came into round one as an unknown to me but quickly proved themselves against Controlled Chaos fielding the only two Myrmidons I think in the tourney. They managed to wipe the CC team pretty easily, after the CC team made some mental mistakes, like moving before the match and going outside the arena. Even if they hadn't made those mistakes Boars would have won that fight. I'm going to side with the favorites, though every part of my under-dog body wants Boars to win. Both can advance with a bloody enough match.

16:20 Important Internet Spaceship League vs Against ALL Authorities - BDEAL aka IISL, had an easy time in the first round, crushing their opponents sleipnir setup with ease, everything seemed to be going their way, but a closer look at the setup they faced, shows some interesting anomalies, mainly active tanking Sleipnirs, 800mm plated Blackbirds, no luck on jams apparently. AAA went up against what I would say is one of the weaker setups fielded, Caldari Navy Hookbill, Celestius, Cynabal, Blackbird and Tengu, AAA had no problem powering through that assorted mess and cruised into this round with the maximum amount of points. BDEAL and AAA face much tougher opponents in this round and will have to prove their setups against a much more difficult foe, but with a bloody battle both sides could advance. Even though the AAA guys we fought last year are no longer with AAA I'll still root for them.

16:40 Unaffiliated vs B A N E - I'll be rooting for my Syndicate brosefs in the Unaffiliated after they cruised through the first round without a single loss, but they will face tough opposition in B A N E who also made it through the first round without a loss. Bane fielded the only Widow we have seen so far while Unaffiliated brought another unorthodox setup that worked well, things will have to change on both setups if they are brought again, but it will be good match.

17:00 Electric Monkey Overlords vs The G0dfathers - EMOOOOOOO, okay okay I'm done. I-CUT, I think, is their ticker, and they proved it by cutting out the chances of their opponents in week one, their Minmatar setup cleaned the field, leaving only a Echo of ECHO behind when they were done. Look I can do cheesy, bad commentary too, I should apply next year. G0ds brought a 5 man 5 tier 1 BC setup, one of the few brought, and had tremendous success against their opponents, overwhelming them with EC drones and DPS. Both teams did very well in their fights so it will be interesting to see what will happen with this matchup, I think EMO will pull the upset here and continue on to the next round. Like the rest of these high-scoring teams, G0ds can advance with a bloody match, needing just 20ish points to secure a spot in the next round.

17:20 Ushra'Khan vs Ignore This. - Ushra pulled through, my Minnie brosefs slid past the first round with ease, employing dual Sacri's, logistics and some support to clear the field, showing those dirty Amarr how to fly those shiny ships. Ignore this was hard to ignore (there I go again) in their first victory, while they did lose a single ship to DOA, they managed to wipe the field and move on with authority, Fielding yet another variation on the ever-popular Tengu setup. I'll be pulling for Ushra to continue on, though Ignore This has a great chance to make it to next weekend if they can eek out a few points against whatever Ushra brings to the field.

18:20 Vanguard Imperium vs Intrepid Crossing - So let me try to get this right for once, VI, who hold some southern sov, in and around Querious and Delve(thanks anonymous) did a great job taking out MM in week one. Their solid setup of Sleipnirs backed by a logi had little trouble with the MM Cyclone setup and has left them in great shape to advancing to the next round, while a win would be nice to seal the deal, it is not required. With as few as 10-20 points and a loss they still stand a good chance to advance. IRC either lucked out or chose well (your choice of words) when they were pitted against Star Fraction in the first weekend. The Tengu and Loki combination they selected was easily able to down the two curse, logi and bomber setup used by the Star Fraction. It will be a tough matchup between these two as they square off in round 2, both sides can advance with a bloody battle. I think IRC has the slight advantage here, but I'm going to go with VI instead since I did such a shit job of researching them last time, apparently.

18:40 P0WER OF TWO vs Brick Squad - P0WER brought 3 tengu's and a Destroyer as cannon-fodder, they lost the Dessy early in the match but easily swept the rest of the hostile field of the 5 S's. The three man Tengu setup looks to be one of the strongest fielded and proved it time and again against varied opposition. Brick brought the exact same loadout, down to the Cormorant. It will be strange to see them bring separate setups after having so much luck with the three tengu's, in a close match I'll choose Brick.

19:00 Curatores Veritatis Alliance vs Outbreak - CVA, the dirty RPers! Used converted Minmatar ships to push their opponents into an early grave, their 3 Cyclone, 2 Ferox setup brushing off all but one loss, eliminating their foes. Their setup was solid, obviously, but their piloting was alo good, using their ships and drones to the best effect, and coming away with a win. Outbreak opened their week one with a bang, using a variant on the Tengu setup to crush a similar drake setup. Neither one of these teams seem weak, and both made it to the round of 16 at least, last year before being eliminated. In a bloody battle that ends up seeing both teams advance I think that Outbreak squeaks away with a victory.

19:20 Negative Ten vs Bacon Fortress Gaming Syndicate - NEG10 showed up as well with a two Tengu setup, managing to pull out a solid win against their first round opponents despite losing some of their ships. Bacon surprised me by beating NCdot and turning out to not be an alt alliance, seems I've been wrong a lot. Bacon fielded the dual Sacri setup with a Logi further buffering the t2 resists. I'm not going to be surprised again, and think Bacon will come out just ahead in this fight.

19:40 The Kadeshi vs Aggravated Assault - The Kadeshi fought the illegal points setup(53) in the first round and still did well, their Vagabond based setup reducing the Megathron to low structure before the match ended with their opponents being penalized for their failure to count to 50. Aggravated Assault was another team to field the triple Tengu setup, their screening Dessy being their only loss in the first round. I think the Kadeshi will come up with a solid counter to the triple Tengu I anticipate to see from Aggravated assault.

20:00 Lack of Imagination vs Solar Fleet - Imagination used theirs and came up with 3 x Proteus instead of the 3x tengu look we saw so many times, they pulled out a win and buried their opposition, managing to take out the Machariels they were facing with a bit more ease. Solar, one of the few people to beat a 3xtengu setup slipped by their first round opponents, even if barely, their tactic worked. Imagination showed up with 3 x proteus and killed a Mach setup and Solar came with a Mach setup and beat 3 x tengu. Should be a good matchup, no matter what setups are brought. I like the Proteus and the Mach so there goes that Tie breaker, I'll go with Solar on a coin flip.

20:20 Nulli Secunda vs Wildly Inappropriate - Nulli squeezed by I-RED in the first week of fighting, in a close fight they proved to be the tougher, only their Machariel making it out of the fight in one piece. Nulli had to adapt on the fly to counter the I-RED setup, as it wasn't something anyone else saw coming. Wildly used the Tengu setup to relieve Goons of their ships, left with only a Tengu at the end, they still managed a victory. In this I will give the flexibility and thinking on their feet advantage to Nulli, who I anticipate will make this match a good one.

20:40 RAZOR Alliance vs Paisti Syndicate - RAZOR and Paisti took a one point handicap to be the highest rated teams on the ladder, and still managed to complete their matches without loss. RAZOR faced the trendy Tengu setup in their first match and still took no losses while eliminating the opposing team with ease. Paisti had a bit easier of an opposing setup, facing a dual ishtar setup, but still made it through without loss. Voting against RAZOR screwed me last week, and I won't let that happen again. I think Razor comes through in this battle just barely ahead but both teams advance on points to the next round.

Man these things take forever to write! Until next week, good luck to all. Hopefully RK will make it to the next round!

AT9 Week 1 predictions

Thankfully after the initial blip of the banning rule, since outlawed, rules from last year have been largely unchanged, the main addition being the new qualifying rounds of 5v5 instead of 10v10. It will be interesting to see how many copycat setups from last year we will see come 10v10 time. First it's time for the new 5v5 rounds. 50 total points and a max of 5 pilots per side should speed things up and change the mechanics of each fight significantly.

Another interesting thing to note is the addition of pilots who flew with each other last year now being a part of different teams. GENOS spent some time in PL before breaking off in time to rejoin Hydra Reloaded and form a team there.  PL will of course be fielding it's team from years past. Meanwhile, some members of GENOS left to join Goons and Rens911 to field their team.

The main contention will be if setups with don't use the 12 point Logistics cruiser in 5v5 will be outclassed by the ones who do. One on hand the Logi can deal out impressive reps, keeping things alive under all kind of DPS especially t2 ships, but using that 12 points elsewhere can significantly increase the punch of the ice ships you do have by allowing the addition of another DPS ship.  T3's also seem, to me, to be very powerful here with their mix of EHP and DPS, and inherent strengths vs ewar offered in a smaller engagement. How many t3 setups will we be seeing, and of those how many will be anything other than the boring Tengu setups that I expect?

Only time will tell. Match pairings for the first weekend have been posted, and there are some oldies to the tourney as well as some newcomers, even some alt based alliances. It will be an interesting ride. Good luck to all.

Saturday 28th

15:00 White Noise. vs. Majesta Empire - White Noise wasn't in AT8, but I have high hopes for them this time. Majesta Empire did better than I expected last year, getting into the round of 32, before being put out of the tourney by The Wrong Alliance. They fielded solid setups, so it will be a tough call.  I think White Noise. loses a close one here.

15:20 Outbreak vs. RvB - Blue Republic - Blue Republic is another newcomer but as a PvP focused and high-sec war focused Alliance I think they have a pretty strong group of pilots to pull from, I wonder if they will be able to show their skills here against a very good Outbreak team.  Outbreak nor Blue were in at8, but Outbreak is a classy, solid, pvp organization. Their experience and sp will pull through here.

15:40 The R0NIN vs. Ushra'Khan - Both teams did well in at8, R0NIN advanced to the round of 16, Ushra dropped at the round of 32. It'll be a tough matchup, so we will go to the fittings and team setups they used from last year. Both teams fielded a Bhaal in their final match and lost. I can't argue with those kinds of risks, The R0NIN will edge out a win here.

16:00 GoonSwarm vs. Wildly Inappropriate - With Goons under new tourney management, I imagine, I'm betting they will be much improved, well able to handle WI.  An easy choice.

16:20 Paisti Syndicate vs. Transmission Lost - LOST is a newcomer and look like a combination lowsec, 0.0 and WH alliance. They will be facing off against tourney regulars, the Paisti Syndicate.  Last year the Paisti Syndicate lost to eventual AT winners PL in the round of 16, their minmatar-heavy setup failing to do any damage to the strong PL setup.  That being said, they offed a few good teams on their route to that loss and will provide stiff to overwhelming competition for LOST.

16:40 Get Off My Lawn vs. Raiden. - LAWN, man I love these guys.  They did let me down a few times last year, losing to The R0NIN and then being put out of the tourney by Dystopia alliance. Geeze! Raiden. wasn't an alliance last tourney, formed of some of the better ex-Bobbits, so I have high hopes for them this year.  It'll be close but I'm going to root for LAWN!

17:00 Northern Coalition. vs. Bacon Fortress Gaming Syndicate - NCdot, Bacon, I just, don't, know, wtf, fail.

17:20 The G0dfathers vs. United Front Alliance - G0dfathers lost to CVA in the round of 32 last year, and have to still feel bad about that! Dirty role-players. United didn't participate last year, but are a large, Sov-holding NC alliance. I'll try not to hold that against either of them.  G0d's is my guess.

18:20 Electric Monkey Overlords vs. Reverberation Project - I've never heard of Reverberation Project before, but looking at their KB, I'm honestly not impressed, at all, come on guys, they do have a good logo though. EMO has a great name and I went with them last year, so EMO again this year. I hope Mannar, Elarel, and Schoor are still treating them well.

18:40 Babylon 5.. vs. SOLAR FLEET - Bab wasn't in it last year, But SOLAR was, making it into the round of 32 before being put out by the Panda Team. They had a solid showing up until that point, and I will take them in this match.

19:00 B A N E vs. Corcoran State - I think the Corcoran state is a pretty solid lock for a loss here, just like when they lost their space in Geminate, oh snap!  B A N E, minus all the spaces, are solid, low-sec pirates last time I bothered to look. In any case they should have little trouble with Corcoran.

19:20 Test Alliance Please Ignore vs. BricK sQuAD. - TEST vs "alliance veterans" BricK. It's a tough call here, Brick did well last year, but failed to make it into the final week after Cry Havoc easily crushed their Minmatar heavy setup with a Mach heavy setup.  They won their first match handily, using a Tengu based setup to out spam the opposition. TEST has a chance to surprise early, but it will be against tough opposition.  My money will rest with Brick in this early matchup.

19:40 Lack of Imagination vs. Atlas. - Lack seemed the poster-child of an alt alliance when I saw it's some 29 members and 3 corps, but I did some further investigation, and they do include the more or less active hellsrejects, so perhaps they will have some combat pilots. It's going to take a lot for them to be able to fight against the talent that Atlas can bring to bear.

20:00 Rote Kapelle vs. Black Legion - I privately envy their Muninn based fleets in 0.0, almost worth giving a copy-fleet a chance!  Maybe sometime after we win! GL Black Legion, love your killboard.

20:20 POWER OF TWO vs. Smacked Alliance - Smacked Alliance seems to be mostly lowest and WH space, but look pretty good, some of their members filing up 60+ kills a week. POWER on the other hand is a solid Russian based corp, I believe they have some good pilots but I am not sure.  It's a tough call.  I'm not sure who will win this one but I'll go with Smacked Alliance.

20:40 Unaffiliated vs. Legion of the Damned - Unaffiliated, long time residents and irritants in Syndicate are solid PvPers, but that hasn't translated into success in the AT's.  I predict more of the same for the poor folks of U, with the newcomers, Legion of the Damned taking the win to close out day 1.


Sunday 29th


15:00 RvB - Red Federation vs. Perihelion Alliance - The other half of red vs blue, the red fed show up here.  Similar detractors and to the blue fed.  They face tough opposition in Perihelion alliance. They stood out to me last year, facing touch competition in AAA and MM. Though they lost to both, their matches came down to the very close end.  They fielded solid setups both times and had poor luck against what they faced. Experience will be key here.

15:20 The Obsidian Front vs. Capital Punishment - Looks like these guys have met in space before. Though only briefly and more of a gank than a fight.  My money is begrudgingly on Cap Punishment, especially if they have Maraner as one of their FC's.

15:40 Negative Ten vs. The SPACE POLICE - Another tough fight to predict. Both were in at8 and had some rough opponents, all pre-requirements to doing better this year.  This will definitely be a test of wills, I'll say Negative Ten, they didn't field any Drakes or Tengu's last year though their cane, rupture setup didn't quite get them through.

16:00 Curatores Veritatis Alliance vs. The Conglomeration of Ill Advised Ideas - Ill Advised Idea's.  Hmmmm, I haven't heard of them before, and by the look of their 6 sub 10 member corps, they are either another alt alliance OR a small group who doesn't PvP much.  I'll say alt alliance.  CVA should walk through this one.

16:20 Mos Vape Heavy Industries vs. The Kadeshi - The Kadeshi split their matches last year, not quite qualifying for the finals. Mos Vape on the other hand chose to send one of their members off in style their second match, deploying hull tanking Mega Navy Issues. Mos also lost their first match, though it was closer than their second. My vote is with the Kadeshi for this match.

16:40 The Star Fraction vs. Intrepid Crossing - While -SF- might at one point have won this matchup, or at least be expected to put on a good show, after last years disappointing, to say the least, performance, I just can't back them. Intrepid Crossing on the other hand, made good their first round loss last year with a solid second round victory mainly focused around Tengu/Drake and rook setups, both times.  That's the problem with ECM setups, sometimes you win with ease, and others not so much!

17:00 Morsus Mihi vs. Vanguard Imperium - The Khanid role-players have a tough matchup in the first round vs Morsus Mihi who have managed to do very well in the past. Vanguard is part of the NC I believe and have fought hard for their space, but I doubt that will do much to stop MM. It will be a close fight.

17:20 Ishuk-Raata Enforcement Directive vs. Nulli Secunda - I-RED moved out to Syndicate a bit ago, but I haven't had any direct experience with them so far. This HAS to mean they fail at PvP! I-RED's new to the tourney this year. Matching up favorably against them is nulli, 0.0 sov holders around delve, also tourney newcomers this year. I have to lean towards Nulli given some of I-RED's losses.

18:20 Aggravated Assault vs. Sev3rance - Aggravated must be unhappy that CCP decided to spell their name wrong, for that slight I think they have the power to sever Sev. All things being equal, Aggravated Assault are relatively small, but operate in 0.0 with 126 members. Sev lives in Vale and PB, with about 821 members. Neither of them were in last years tourney, so I will go with the unknown here.  Aggravated Assault all the way!

18:40 RAZOR Alliance vs. Clockwork Pineapple - I'd love to see Clockwork work over RAZOR here but both are very competent so it will be a close fight. GROON wasn't the last at, but RAZOR was.  It's a tough choice because the RAZOR team was rather, err sharp, in it's matches.  My vote is with my Syndicate brethren, Clockwork Pineapple!

19:00 Adeptus Arbetus vs. Against All Authorities - AAA without a doubt on this one, still remember our epic battle with them last year, unless those people have moved on, I actually have no idea. Some Adeptus research, they weren't in at8, and seem to be a steadily growing alliance looking to solidify their name in AT9, after some trouble with -SF- and their freestation in Providence. It will be a tough match for their entry into AT9, I think AAA will be up to the task.

19:20 Important Internet Spaceship League vs. Chain of Chaos - IISL made it to the round of 32 last year before being put out by Atlas alliance. Their setups were solid, if a little light on numbers, all the way through their final loss coming after dispatching the 14 billion isk Flagship Bhaalgorn of Atlas.  Chain aka NAWTI is a stead pirate alliance in and around Eve's lowsec, facing up against IISL will be a challenge though they have met in the past, distant past. NAWTI has a well deserved reputation as fighters and will look to extend that reputation on IISL.  It will be a close match, but I think IISL has the slight edge heading in.

19:40 Ignore This. vs. Dead on Arrival - Ignore This. is a newcomer to the AT, their alliance centered around a single corp but their kill-board looks above average, so there might be some home for them. They have been operating in Fountain with G0d's against TEST and IISL, killing more than a few caps last week alone. I'm not sure what that has to do with the tourney, but there you have it. Dead on arrival on the other hand looks to be a WH corp that goes around and kills people, in the face. Oh wait, they just want to kill people, but don't actually get that many kills? Their killboard leaders have about 47 kills... I'm not sure they are going to have what it takes to face off against the pilots of Ignore This. but test server time could prove me wrong.

20:00 Wild Boars vs. Controlled Chaos - Man, I don't know about this one. Both of their killboards look pretty good, Controlled Chaos is a sov holding alliance, in Pure Blind and Tribute, while Wild Boars look to be a 0.0 PvP alliance basing out of Tribute.  It'll be a close fight for sure, but I think Controlled Chaos will come out on top.

20:20 Waterboard vs. Circle-of-Two - Circle of Two put in some great fights last year, winning their first three matches and making it to the round of 16. I'm happy to see them in again this year, their matches were well executed with strong setups. Oh, did I mention they flew Freki's in the last tourney? Yeah, and lost 2 of them in their match against Voltron that put them out of the tourney.  Now that takes some balls. I hope to see more of the same this year. Waterboard on the other hand, seem to operate out of NC space, holding a small pocket of sov up there. I just don't see Circle being slowed down here.

20:40 The Initiative vs. Dark Taboo - Well anyone who password protect their killboard have to be bitches, see CVA. Taboo claim to have sov, but Dotlan says they don't so my guess is renters somewhere either North or South, they also claim to be "the balance between being too big and too small." Their recruitment, or rather intro page is more like a litany of bad cliche's. 700ish members and 30+ corps, doesn't look that good. Thus The initiative look even better than usual in this matchup. Init boasts some strong corps like Evol as well as DRUCKWELLE Evolution. Last at nither of them too part, because of that the match will be closer than it should be but Init will still walk through this one.