Tuesday, May 24, 2011

AT9 Week 1 predictions

Thankfully after the initial blip of the banning rule, since outlawed, rules from last year have been largely unchanged, the main addition being the new qualifying rounds of 5v5 instead of 10v10. It will be interesting to see how many copycat setups from last year we will see come 10v10 time. First it's time for the new 5v5 rounds. 50 total points and a max of 5 pilots per side should speed things up and change the mechanics of each fight significantly.

Another interesting thing to note is the addition of pilots who flew with each other last year now being a part of different teams. GENOS spent some time in PL before breaking off in time to rejoin Hydra Reloaded and form a team there.  PL will of course be fielding it's team from years past. Meanwhile, some members of GENOS left to join Goons and Rens911 to field their team.

The main contention will be if setups with don't use the 12 point Logistics cruiser in 5v5 will be outclassed by the ones who do. One on hand the Logi can deal out impressive reps, keeping things alive under all kind of DPS especially t2 ships, but using that 12 points elsewhere can significantly increase the punch of the ice ships you do have by allowing the addition of another DPS ship.  T3's also seem, to me, to be very powerful here with their mix of EHP and DPS, and inherent strengths vs ewar offered in a smaller engagement. How many t3 setups will we be seeing, and of those how many will be anything other than the boring Tengu setups that I expect?

Only time will tell. Match pairings for the first weekend have been posted, and there are some oldies to the tourney as well as some newcomers, even some alt based alliances. It will be an interesting ride. Good luck to all.

Saturday 28th

15:00 White Noise. vs. Majesta Empire - White Noise wasn't in AT8, but I have high hopes for them this time. Majesta Empire did better than I expected last year, getting into the round of 32, before being put out of the tourney by The Wrong Alliance. They fielded solid setups, so it will be a tough call.  I think White Noise. loses a close one here.

15:20 Outbreak vs. RvB - Blue Republic - Blue Republic is another newcomer but as a PvP focused and high-sec war focused Alliance I think they have a pretty strong group of pilots to pull from, I wonder if they will be able to show their skills here against a very good Outbreak team.  Outbreak nor Blue were in at8, but Outbreak is a classy, solid, pvp organization. Their experience and sp will pull through here.

15:40 The R0NIN vs. Ushra'Khan - Both teams did well in at8, R0NIN advanced to the round of 16, Ushra dropped at the round of 32. It'll be a tough matchup, so we will go to the fittings and team setups they used from last year. Both teams fielded a Bhaal in their final match and lost. I can't argue with those kinds of risks, The R0NIN will edge out a win here.

16:00 GoonSwarm vs. Wildly Inappropriate - With Goons under new tourney management, I imagine, I'm betting they will be much improved, well able to handle WI.  An easy choice.

16:20 Paisti Syndicate vs. Transmission Lost - LOST is a newcomer and look like a combination lowsec, 0.0 and WH alliance. They will be facing off against tourney regulars, the Paisti Syndicate.  Last year the Paisti Syndicate lost to eventual AT winners PL in the round of 16, their minmatar-heavy setup failing to do any damage to the strong PL setup.  That being said, they offed a few good teams on their route to that loss and will provide stiff to overwhelming competition for LOST.

16:40 Get Off My Lawn vs. Raiden. - LAWN, man I love these guys.  They did let me down a few times last year, losing to The R0NIN and then being put out of the tourney by Dystopia alliance. Geeze! Raiden. wasn't an alliance last tourney, formed of some of the better ex-Bobbits, so I have high hopes for them this year.  It'll be close but I'm going to root for LAWN!

17:00 Northern Coalition. vs. Bacon Fortress Gaming Syndicate - NCdot, Bacon, I just, don't, know, wtf, fail.

17:20 The G0dfathers vs. United Front Alliance - G0dfathers lost to CVA in the round of 32 last year, and have to still feel bad about that! Dirty role-players. United didn't participate last year, but are a large, Sov-holding NC alliance. I'll try not to hold that against either of them.  G0d's is my guess.

18:20 Electric Monkey Overlords vs. Reverberation Project - I've never heard of Reverberation Project before, but looking at their KB, I'm honestly not impressed, at all, come on guys, they do have a good logo though. EMO has a great name and I went with them last year, so EMO again this year. I hope Mannar, Elarel, and Schoor are still treating them well.

18:40 Babylon 5.. vs. SOLAR FLEET - Bab wasn't in it last year, But SOLAR was, making it into the round of 32 before being put out by the Panda Team. They had a solid showing up until that point, and I will take them in this match.

19:00 B A N E vs. Corcoran State - I think the Corcoran state is a pretty solid lock for a loss here, just like when they lost their space in Geminate, oh snap!  B A N E, minus all the spaces, are solid, low-sec pirates last time I bothered to look. In any case they should have little trouble with Corcoran.

19:20 Test Alliance Please Ignore vs. BricK sQuAD. - TEST vs "alliance veterans" BricK. It's a tough call here, Brick did well last year, but failed to make it into the final week after Cry Havoc easily crushed their Minmatar heavy setup with a Mach heavy setup.  They won their first match handily, using a Tengu based setup to out spam the opposition. TEST has a chance to surprise early, but it will be against tough opposition.  My money will rest with Brick in this early matchup.

19:40 Lack of Imagination vs. Atlas. - Lack seemed the poster-child of an alt alliance when I saw it's some 29 members and 3 corps, but I did some further investigation, and they do include the more or less active hellsrejects, so perhaps they will have some combat pilots. It's going to take a lot for them to be able to fight against the talent that Atlas can bring to bear.

20:00 Rote Kapelle vs. Black Legion - I privately envy their Muninn based fleets in 0.0, almost worth giving a copy-fleet a chance!  Maybe sometime after we win! GL Black Legion, love your killboard.

20:20 POWER OF TWO vs. Smacked Alliance - Smacked Alliance seems to be mostly lowest and WH space, but look pretty good, some of their members filing up 60+ kills a week. POWER on the other hand is a solid Russian based corp, I believe they have some good pilots but I am not sure.  It's a tough call.  I'm not sure who will win this one but I'll go with Smacked Alliance.

20:40 Unaffiliated vs. Legion of the Damned - Unaffiliated, long time residents and irritants in Syndicate are solid PvPers, but that hasn't translated into success in the AT's.  I predict more of the same for the poor folks of U, with the newcomers, Legion of the Damned taking the win to close out day 1.

Sunday 29th

15:00 RvB - Red Federation vs. Perihelion Alliance - The other half of red vs blue, the red fed show up here.  Similar detractors and to the blue fed.  They face tough opposition in Perihelion alliance. They stood out to me last year, facing touch competition in AAA and MM. Though they lost to both, their matches came down to the very close end.  They fielded solid setups both times and had poor luck against what they faced. Experience will be key here.

15:20 The Obsidian Front vs. Capital Punishment - Looks like these guys have met in space before. Though only briefly and more of a gank than a fight.  My money is begrudgingly on Cap Punishment, especially if they have Maraner as one of their FC's.

15:40 Negative Ten vs. The SPACE POLICE - Another tough fight to predict. Both were in at8 and had some rough opponents, all pre-requirements to doing better this year.  This will definitely be a test of wills, I'll say Negative Ten, they didn't field any Drakes or Tengu's last year though their cane, rupture setup didn't quite get them through.

16:00 Curatores Veritatis Alliance vs. The Conglomeration of Ill Advised Ideas - Ill Advised Idea's.  Hmmmm, I haven't heard of them before, and by the look of their 6 sub 10 member corps, they are either another alt alliance OR a small group who doesn't PvP much.  I'll say alt alliance.  CVA should walk through this one.

16:20 Mos Vape Heavy Industries vs. The Kadeshi - The Kadeshi split their matches last year, not quite qualifying for the finals. Mos Vape on the other hand chose to send one of their members off in style their second match, deploying hull tanking Mega Navy Issues. Mos also lost their first match, though it was closer than their second. My vote is with the Kadeshi for this match.

16:40 The Star Fraction vs. Intrepid Crossing - While -SF- might at one point have won this matchup, or at least be expected to put on a good show, after last years disappointing, to say the least, performance, I just can't back them. Intrepid Crossing on the other hand, made good their first round loss last year with a solid second round victory mainly focused around Tengu/Drake and rook setups, both times.  That's the problem with ECM setups, sometimes you win with ease, and others not so much!

17:00 Morsus Mihi vs. Vanguard Imperium - The Khanid role-players have a tough matchup in the first round vs Morsus Mihi who have managed to do very well in the past. Vanguard is part of the NC I believe and have fought hard for their space, but I doubt that will do much to stop MM. It will be a close fight.

17:20 Ishuk-Raata Enforcement Directive vs. Nulli Secunda - I-RED moved out to Syndicate a bit ago, but I haven't had any direct experience with them so far. This HAS to mean they fail at PvP! I-RED's new to the tourney this year. Matching up favorably against them is nulli, 0.0 sov holders around delve, also tourney newcomers this year. I have to lean towards Nulli given some of I-RED's losses.

18:20 Aggravated Assault vs. Sev3rance - Aggravated must be unhappy that CCP decided to spell their name wrong, for that slight I think they have the power to sever Sev. All things being equal, Aggravated Assault are relatively small, but operate in 0.0 with 126 members. Sev lives in Vale and PB, with about 821 members. Neither of them were in last years tourney, so I will go with the unknown here.  Aggravated Assault all the way!

18:40 RAZOR Alliance vs. Clockwork Pineapple - I'd love to see Clockwork work over RAZOR here but both are very competent so it will be a close fight. GROON wasn't the last at, but RAZOR was.  It's a tough choice because the RAZOR team was rather, err sharp, in it's matches.  My vote is with my Syndicate brethren, Clockwork Pineapple!

19:00 Adeptus Arbetus vs. Against All Authorities - AAA without a doubt on this one, still remember our epic battle with them last year, unless those people have moved on, I actually have no idea. Some Adeptus research, they weren't in at8, and seem to be a steadily growing alliance looking to solidify their name in AT9, after some trouble with -SF- and their freestation in Providence. It will be a tough match for their entry into AT9, I think AAA will be up to the task.

19:20 Important Internet Spaceship League vs. Chain of Chaos - IISL made it to the round of 32 last year before being put out by Atlas alliance. Their setups were solid, if a little light on numbers, all the way through their final loss coming after dispatching the 14 billion isk Flagship Bhaalgorn of Atlas.  Chain aka NAWTI is a stead pirate alliance in and around Eve's lowsec, facing up against IISL will be a challenge though they have met in the past, distant past. NAWTI has a well deserved reputation as fighters and will look to extend that reputation on IISL.  It will be a close match, but I think IISL has the slight edge heading in.

19:40 Ignore This. vs. Dead on Arrival - Ignore This. is a newcomer to the AT, their alliance centered around a single corp but their kill-board looks above average, so there might be some home for them. They have been operating in Fountain with G0d's against TEST and IISL, killing more than a few caps last week alone. I'm not sure what that has to do with the tourney, but there you have it. Dead on arrival on the other hand looks to be a WH corp that goes around and kills people, in the face. Oh wait, they just want to kill people, but don't actually get that many kills? Their killboard leaders have about 47 kills... I'm not sure they are going to have what it takes to face off against the pilots of Ignore This. but test server time could prove me wrong.

20:00 Wild Boars vs. Controlled Chaos - Man, I don't know about this one. Both of their killboards look pretty good, Controlled Chaos is a sov holding alliance, in Pure Blind and Tribute, while Wild Boars look to be a 0.0 PvP alliance basing out of Tribute.  It'll be a close fight for sure, but I think Controlled Chaos will come out on top.

20:20 Waterboard vs. Circle-of-Two - Circle of Two put in some great fights last year, winning their first three matches and making it to the round of 16. I'm happy to see them in again this year, their matches were well executed with strong setups. Oh, did I mention they flew Freki's in the last tourney? Yeah, and lost 2 of them in their match against Voltron that put them out of the tourney.  Now that takes some balls. I hope to see more of the same this year. Waterboard on the other hand, seem to operate out of NC space, holding a small pocket of sov up there. I just don't see Circle being slowed down here.

20:40 The Initiative vs. Dark Taboo - Well anyone who password protect their killboard have to be bitches, see CVA. Taboo claim to have sov, but Dotlan says they don't so my guess is renters somewhere either North or South, they also claim to be "the balance between being too big and too small." Their recruitment, or rather intro page is more like a litany of bad cliche's. 700ish members and 30+ corps, doesn't look that good. Thus The initiative look even better than usual in this matchup. Init boasts some strong corps like Evol as well as DRUCKWELLE Evolution. Last at nither of them too part, because of that the match will be closer than it should be but Init will still walk through this one.


  1. Heretic Academy joined Dark Taboo, so they have quite a lot of low sec pirates in there now.
    Also, I managed to accidently got CVA's password out of them. By accident. I had no idea the password could even be got like that :p

  2. Well first, good to know about Dark Taboo. Heretic Academy is a good corp, but I think I'll still stick with Init.

    Also re: getting the CVA password, welcome to the land of espionage and infiltration :)

  3. 1. Vanguard are not rp.
    2. Vanguard are not part of NC


  4. Thanks Anonymous, I figured that VI shared in the RP of one of their member corps in KP-V, I guess you just gave them a station to shut them up. You aren't all dirty lol rpers, good for you!

    Right about not being a part of the NC, I guess you are members of the Dek Coalition? Thanks for the heads up. I'll make sure to reflect that next time. Good work killing MM.

  5. Vanguard Imperium are in the south dude...