While this is still possible to do from one year to the other, the changes made to modules and the new modules make this year a new game. So here we go with predictions for week 2! Just so we are clear
Little ATX jargon to whet your appetite...
ASB - Ancillary Shield booster
XLASB - Extra Large Ancillary Shield booster.
THD - Total Hell Death.
Saturday, July 7
15:00 Curatores Veritatis Alliance vs Noir. Mercenary Group - Well I guess we start with the lowest ranked and work our way to the highest. These two teams had both bad luck, and bad setups in the first round. CVA's First setup should have been fairly solid and ended up facing off against a near mirror image. Well all except for the Frigates. Gypsy brought tackle Merlins and CVA brought ECM merlins. Unfortunately their ECM just could not hold and their scimitar was tackled and killed before they could inflict any damage. They didn't lose all their ships, but it goes to show that the rules care about explosions. Not retained ships. Noir had some rough luck, with their AT captain apparently a no-show for their match. And that could be considered a high point in conjunction with the beating their recieved in the first round. In short they went up against an unexpected and very lucky rook setup, that their dual Ferox's could not break before being killed themselves. In a game of second chances, nothing short of Total Hell Death (THD, complete removal of the enemies team) can expect to move people on to the next round if they scored 0 points in the first round. It's a touch matchup but I think CVA has a good underlying team, and a semi strong setup. CVA narrowly win this not sure it actually matters
15:20 No Holes Barred vs Test Alliance Please Ignore - Speaking of teams who should probably copy off other more successful teams, we come to No Holes Barred, users of the bizzare, and ineffective armor Sleipnirs. Now for those who don't know, Sleipnirs are shield takers not because of an over-abundance of mid slots, having only 5, and 5 low slots, but because their ship bonus' heavily favor a shield tank, providing more shield per boost as one of the main bonus. I'm sure No Holes Barred knows this now, after losing in specacular fashion. Only part of that was because of the armor Sleipnirs, the other part was because of a solid setup by the opposing team. TEST Brought a solid setup for the first round, but were unable to break the tanks of the locally and remote repped Cyclones they faced in thier Sleipnirs. They were slowly ground under for a pretty convincing loss. TEST shouldn't shy away from what are obviously good setups, and come with another solid setup here. I think TEST will in this one convincingly. (I'm going to stop pointing out that it still might not matter because they scored 0 points in round one.
15:40 RAZOR Alliance vs Dirt Nap Squad. - Razor lost their first match, and I might attribute that completely to their failure to kill Darkside's Logi before their's went down. Otherwise it would have been an entirely different match. But you know how it is with "might" and "maybe." They don't get you very far. Dirt Nap Squad (DNS) on the other hand, brought what appears to be more of a "Don't die and maybe score some points" setup, rather than a "Kill some people." setup in the first week. it didn't work out so well, and despite the conservative setup, DNS still lost all their ships and didn't kill anything. RAZOR isn't a bad pvp Alliance, but then neither is DNS, despite being black ops droppers. They still do other things effectively. If DNS come more aggressive this time they might just be able to head off RAZOR and score a win.
16:00 Get Off My Lawn vs Wormholes Holders - Well LAWN's setup in round one, wasn't "BAD" it was just outclassed. Their Sabre's died very quickly after their logi went down and they didn't seem to get the memo about how good Sleipnirs are with Ancillary shield boosters, and fit a buffer tank instead. They went down in "record" time. Wormhole Holders Decided it was a good idea to show up with just three ships. Now their setup was probably pretty strong on paper. But they did seemingly zero research on how it woud work in practice and how they should warp in relative to the beacon. They lost in a big way, but at least they got the XL ASB memo. After a week of refinement and reviewing setups I think that LAWN will come out victorious here.
16:20 SOLAR FLEET vs BricK sQuAD. - SOLAR brought a Sleipnir setup from last year, fitting buffer tank instead of XLASB, and then had the unfortunate luck by running smack into a Rook based team, done right. Their lowslot ECCM wasn't up to the task of keeping them unjammed long enough to matter. BricK on the other hand brought a gank talos setup, only to run into a even more ganky Armor Vindicator setup. The total DPS was similar on both teams, however, the total EHP heavily favored their opponents, and it showed. Now just watching the matches since then, lots of teams have adapted both of these setups, but the Talos setup was rarely successful, bring brought in some form to the field 4 times, but only winning once, against the even more bland setup of Tengu's. Brick's Scimitar was also active afterburner tanked. Not a great counter to 90% webs of the Vindicator, especially when you try to dive in close with the scimitar. That speaks of bad piloting, while the SOLAR loss just looks like a bad matchup rather than bad piloting compacted with a bad matchup.
16:40 Capital Punishment. vs The Veyr Collective - Speaking of Vindicator setups... Capital Punishment. is sure aware of those. They were another set of adopters for the Talos, and it didn't end well. The Veyr Collective also brought a set of Talos' but these were armor tanked. And missing a single lowslot it looks like. They went smack up against the Nothern Coalition. Honestly it might have looked close but that one was over before it began. Capital Punishment I think has the advantage in this match.
17:00 Manifest Destiny. vs The Fourth District - Mainifest Destiny in round one brought Artillery Tornadoes. It'd be shallow to say, "And that's all I have to say." But really, that's pretty close to all I am going to say. Other than to break it down a bit so there is understanding as to why this is such a bad idea. The entire arena is 125km in radius, so sure a fight COULD happen at extreme ranges, however, warp ins are at a max of 50KM from the beacon. So the max distance that could happen would be 100km from each other. In that enagement range, 800mm Tornadoes can reach to 50-80 KM with Barrage L. And actually track to have an impact in the match. 1400mm arty Nadoes have no such luck. In addition Manifest brought their Tornadoes in at 50, so that's something, at least they were trying with their setup. Obviously, no luck. The Fourth District brought a risky Marauder setup in round one, Kronos that didn't seem to do that much damage or that much webbing (despite bonus' that seem to lend to those two things). They were torn up by a Ferox based team with really little trouble. Difficult to tell what happened there since I didn't see many web or DPS effects that should have been coming from the Kronos. Manifest Destiny has had success in the past so I am going to go with experience over the Fourth District.
17:20 Dystopia Alliance vs Pure Madness. - Dystopia decided to bring a pretty weak setup against a very strong (historically) Pandemic Legion team. They paid the price when their Widow, DCU tanked with multispecs died hard and fast in the first match. But one thing bothers me about their setup. I don't consider Dystopia a bad, by any means, alliance. In fact, they are full of old time PvPers and 'bitter-vets.' It makes me wonder about the meta game involved between PL and Dystopia. Pure Madness brought what should have been a solid Oracle setup, but they were tanked by some XLASB love from their opponents, and seemingly when they were just about to burn through one Sleipnirs charges on their XLASB, two of the Oracles got jammed out by ECM drones, reducing their DPS so the Sleipnir could easily tank them, and eventually, each one was hunted down and killed by a combination of good piloting from the Merlin they faced and then later by three sleipnirs pinning their opponents. This is the first matchup where teams actually scored points against their opponents, each team scored 2 points. Not sure how much of a help this is going to be in light of trying to advance. However total hell deaths are going to be required to move on. I really would like Pure Madness. to win here, but I am also really torn between them as tourney newcomers and underdogs and the skill and experience from a team like Dystopia. I'll take a gamble here and go with Pure Madness.
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18:20 Dark Taboo vs WHY so Seri0Us - I'm really not sure how Dark Taboo managed to kill anything with their setup, but I guess it's no surprise that they were able to kill some frigs, seeing as how the majority of their DPS was frigate sized. Here's a refresher, Taboo fielded Rooks, with small missile launchers and rocket launchers, as well as some daredevils with warp speed rigs. If there was a psyduck image I could post here, I would. WHY on the other hand, brought a ballsy setup for 2 Machariels and support, but faced a just as mean team of Sleipnirs. After some early match trade offs, the Machs ended up going down towards the ends of the match. I'm just so disappointed with the setup Dark Taboo fielded in the first round that I just can't pick them in the second.
18:40 Lone Star Partners vs Bruderschaft der Pilger - Lone star brought a pretty interesting mix of setups and ships to the first match. Their Oneiros was XLASB fit and had 3 large reps, but their smaller ships didn't have the buffer to benefit from the armor repairs and died quickly. The Vigilants's had TD's and ECCM, but no injectors, leaving them vulnerable to neuts at the very least. Bruderschaft showed up with a solid setup, but faced off against a pair of Vindicators. Even the XLASB tank isn't enough to deal with that much DPS and their ships left the field in a hurry. But the important thing to focus on from their match was that their setup was a well thought out one, but was facing some serious trouble any way you look at Vindicators. They did make some pretty critical mistakes. You don't always want to start at 0 in a sleipnir based team, and this is exactly why. The Vindicators were able to land web at the start of the fight on both Sleipnirs, and remove them before really anything could happen. Had the Sleipnirs started further away, the result might not have been different, but it might have been closer. Lone Star looks like it is interested in out of the box setups, but Bruderschaft have proven in round one that they can at least comp a decent setup. Pretty much a toss up here for me. I will go with Bruderschaft.
19:00 Choke Point vs Exiled Ones - Choke Point was matched up again Fluffeh in the first round, so I have probably seen this fight almost as much as the Rote fight from weekend one. They brought a good setup, two machs with a few jamming frigs and a daredevil to tackle down targets. However their execution was less than stellar. Their focused fire was poor, and they were unable to go for any of the weaker targets until later in the fight. Exiled Ones on the other hand, showed up with what on the surface appeared to be a good setup. But then the killmails started rolling in to reveal Tengu's not only with an active tank, but with a large shield boosting active tank and injectors.They were able to volley fire some opponents off the field, but their setup was a confusingly bad one. Choke point rebounds here I think, and is able to score some much needed points, hopefully combining with their current 8 points.
19:20 Kill It With Fire vs RED.OverLord - I just love teams that bring Curse. And Kill it with Fire did just that, even if it didn't work out for them vs the FA Sleipnir setup, it is still a good move. EWAR really decided this fight, with the Kill it ships losing a lot of time behind Kitsune jams. RED.O brought a Tengu setup, but it was very unsuccessful vs a very strange dual tanking Mach setup that managed to outlast the Tengu DPS during their XLASB reload cycles. Historically the Tengu setup's haven't returned solid results, but have been either the punchers or the punching bags. In this case the punching bag. I'm going to side with the team that brought a curse last time.
19:40 PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY vs ROMANIAN-LEGION - Pizza, well PZZA, I have to say I was quite surprised by their fight in the first weekend. Obviously fighting directly against them might have something to do with that, but their setup was a strong kiting setup, even if they were in Drakes. Traditionally a hated ship in the tournament. Romanian-Legion showed up with an expensive but ultimately dead setup, since they decided it was a good idea to warp a pair of Machariels to 0 at the start of the match, they were quickly tackled and broken. The exchange at close range was brutal, and they were able to take down a few ships before losing. Like I've said before, having a decent setup is worthless without understanding how and where to warp into a fight. Here's a hint, it's rarely @0. I think Pizza shows up with a delivery this match and with 12 points and a strong showing here they have a good chance to make it into round 2.
20:00 The Kadeshi vs Shadow Cartel - It's a match where neither team really deserves to be in the loser bracket. The Kadeshi, I chose them in round 1, and then they made the one piloting mistake that cost them, and lost one of their Tengu's to a boundary violation. The ships they were fighting were barely unable to tank three Tengu's worth of damage, and with the loss of one of their Tengu's like that, their damage went from winning the fight levels to losing the fight. They did manage to net a cool 14 points by killing a Vigil and a Tier 3 BC (Talos). Shadow Cartel had a run of bad luck before their match even STARTED, losing a lynch pin Proteus to tragic disconnect moments before their match. Down one ship they were fought under, but still managed to rope in a few points. In a match of two good teams that lost, one through piloting error, and the other through computer error, I think both with be forced to come out swinging for the fences to make their 14 points count the most. In a very close match that could go either way, the Shadow Cartel is going eek out a victory, taking their 14 points plus this match into the group stages. It could easily be the other way around if the Shadow Cartel underestimates The Kadeshi at all.
20:20 Sleeper Social Club vs Babylon 5.. - SSC brought in some drone love in the first round, and was one of a few teams to do so. Their Ishtars threatened to blot out the sun with drones, but were tackled towards the end of the match, to just barely, lose on points to the Fearless team. Overall they brought a solid, supported setup, and scored 16 points for their trouble. Babylon 5.. brought a pair of heavily tanked Vargur's with a Webloki for support. Unfortunately for them, the Nulli team they fought brought a ton of ECM drones and were able to lock down the Vargurs enough to gain a decisive advantage. Oh, and the Babylon 5.. team brought 3 ships to a six ship match, because of this the ECM weak Marauders were swarmed with drones and the failure to fit a smartbomb on the Vargur's are very telling for their next match. I think SSC will win this one.
20:40 Black Legion. vs Perihelion Alliance - This has to be the best match of the day, how sweet they save it for last. Both teams have done well in the past... MEN. Oh how you let me down in the first round! Honestly your setup wasn't bad at all, you were just outflown by the drone swarm and fast tackle of your opponents, who removed your Logi before the match even really got heated, depriving you of the rep you needed for your buffer fit Ferox's. Black Legion still rallied and got the most points of the losing brackets, at 20 points. Perihelion brought up the second most with 16 points (tied with Babylon 5..) In round one Peri FACED a Vargur setup, and a tough loss. They brought a Proteus gank squad, but the hostile Vargurs were able to pick apart their reps at range, before focusing on the meat of the Proteus setup. Peri was just not able to grind down the rep and EHP of the Vargurs when it came time. Some questionable calls were made early on in their first match and that is usually the most telling. Solid FCing will usually slant the match. In a match I hate to choose a winner of, I will predict Perihelion goes through.
Sunday, July 8
15:00 Rote Kapelle vs Fluffeh Bunneh Murder Squad - Best match of the day. Totally! Okay okay, I'll tamper my Rote enthusiasm and predict this match objectively... Yeah right! So, Rote's setup had trouble with the Drake based kiting setup used by their first round opponents, but they were able to wrangle their targets down to score a win in the first round. Pretty much all Rote, including myself, will tell anyone who listens that getting the points we did isn't a bad thing, and we got what we wanted. Our opponents have the same number of points as we do, 37.5 so I am sure they are saying the same thing. Their initial setup was a bit of a hodge podge, focused around armor logistics and ECM, their Blackbird was really the unexpected hero of the fight. He kept most of the Griffins out of the fight, and pulled a mach to him, halfing the DPS for his teammates. The Deimos and Hurricane tanked the Mach damage well and put out enough DPS to secure points to gain the win. It should be no surprise that I think Rote has the chance to pull out a second win, but with 37.5 points each, both teams have a chance to make it through if they get some points in this match.
15:20 FEARLESS. vs Nulli Secunda - Lark and Fearless performed great in their match, holding onto a tough fought match against a Ishtar setup that could just as easily gone the other way, and looked like it would for a minute there. With 46.25 points Fearless must be pretty happy, but are likely less than happy about their second matching pair up vs Nulli. Nulli pushed through a pretty weak setup, both theirs and their opponents and brought home 41.25 points. This will be a critical match for both teams, where winning with some point or even losing with some points could move both of them through. In this match up I favor FEARLESS.
15:40 Gypsy Band vs Elysian Empire - Gypsy Band faced off against CVA in the first round and handed them a pretty decent loss, only giving up a few points from their setup of Sleipnirs and Merlins. They made some piloting mistakes, but showed up to the field at good ranges, and well led. Elysian empire arrived with a double rook setup that was mostly overlooked in week one despite the serveral victories it produced, and one horrible loss. Elysian Empire delivered a solid setup and didn't bother to copy the setup from alliances and tournaments previous. One has to give them some points for that, but be tempered by the fact that they fought against a likely leaderless and hasty setup in the Noir. team. How much does that count for against the Gypsy band after their good performance. I'm not sure. Tough call on this one without knowing the teams better I am going to go with Gypsy Band.
16:00 Mildly Intoxicated vs R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N. - Mildly Intoxicated surprised a lot of people, myself included when they came out on top of the Black Legion team in the first round. Their setup was a bit of an unconventional drone setup, but their tactical use of assigned drones definitely won them that match by removing the MEN. logistics ship before it could become a factor. R.E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N. used some real strange level of injunitiy, fitting XLASB Machariels with a supplementary armor tank to cover and repair damage when the XLASB were reloading. This in conjunction with solid piloting landed them a victory, and moved them into the winners bracket. Now will they stay here? I don't think so.
16:20 Goonswarm Federation vs Out of Sight. - Goons put on a show in round one. There's no doubt that this year their team has taken practicing and theory crafting as seriously as everyone else. Or they are doing a damn good job of trolling us all into believing that. Part of their convincing win was because the other team brought a brawler setup that just wasn't as good, and paid for it. That didn't change the fact that the Goons Vindicator based setup was a solid one. Out of Sight brought a under-shipped Sleipnir based four man setup. Strangely they are a statistical anomaly, bringing just four ships and winning against a 5 ship setup. I think the Goons arrive to win, and play for keeps, winning in the second round as well.
16:40 Dead Terrorists vs Team Liquid - If PL are the masters of the Minmatar rush by virtue of running it first and most successfully, then Dead Terrorist seem to be that origin point for the dual rook setup. In just match 2 of the first weekend, Dead Terrorists brought a setup that nobody had really had much success with, and cleared the floor of their opposition, handily disposing the often used Minmatar rush setup without a single loss. Team Liquid went to the other end of the extreme, and refined a mediocre setup, slapped some more speed on there and flew around abusing some armor tanked Sleipnirs. A good first showing, but it's unclear if that was more due to the caliber of their opponents, or due to their setup. Well now it's their chance to prove themselves against a historically dominant team in Dead Terrorists. I'm backing their play.
17:00 DarkSide. vs Verge of Collapse - DarkSide utterly rolled their opponents in the first round, using a unique setup that hasn't been duplicated since. Even after having reportedly lost some of their "key membership" they know how to put on a good show. I noted some good piloting but their setup was just so much better than the Brutix based setup they faced, that it was really never a contest. I look forward to see what they bring this time. Verge of Collapse scored with their first matchup, coming up against Tornadoes fitting artillery and otherwise poor choices. Once their Sleipnirs ran down the range, fought through some webs, and landed tackle, it was all over. From there on it was just cleanup. The VoC team showed well in the first round, but was never really in danger the entire match. Against DarkSide it is going to be a totally different story. I think a very close story. But in close matches, logic says to go with experience and proven ability.
17:20 The G0dfathers vs THE R0NIN - Battle of the Zero names! Couldn't have planned this one better myself. G0dfathers nuked TEST out of the water in the first round, but it was hardly because TEST brought a bad setup, instead it was because G0dfathers just looked way more on the ball and competent than TEST in the fight. They hope to roll that right on into their match today vs another team with a zero in their name, THE R0NIN. R0NIN punched DNS pretty hard, using a Black ops battleship as the baseline for their setup, they were able to eventually break down the DNS heavy tank setup. I'm rooting for the R0NIN here, the better of the two zero teams...
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18:20 Suddenly Spaceships. vs RvB - Suddenly Spaceships, more like Suddenly DPS! Last match Seldarine and friends met up with another high DPS fit and utterly melted it. Their Vinidcator setup was even more effective against the blaster rush setup they faced than they could have hoped for. In fact, they tore right through them hardly looking back. Coincidentally, another fast-finisher, RvB, in fact a VERY fast finisher, is matched up against them. In the first round RvB dismantled their opponents, and look to do the same here, but keep in mind that both teams got enough points in the first round that all they really need are a few points in this round to keep them in the hunt for a position in the group rounds. Good luck to both sides.
18:40 Ev0ke vs The Gorgon Empire - Ev0ke had what I could call a clean THD in their first round. Their opponents made some mistakes (warping in their tackle/web loki at 0 to support their Maelstroms, who also warped in at 0, but Ev0ke took their mistakes and capitalized fully. Their setup was solid, if not a little overused by this time in the tourney. The Gorgon Empire surprised a lot of people with the manner in which they removed their round 1 opponents from the field. Their quick, brutal THD victory was impressive and well directed. This is a solid matchup, but it still is a tourney vet vs a relative newcomer. In a coin flip decision I am going to guess The Gorgon Empire surprises once again and comes up with a win.
19:00 Against ALL Authorities vs Northern Coalition. - AAA Cruised through their first match, losing only a single merlin in exchange for two Mach kills and a convincing win. They, as well, flew the favored Sleipnir setup, and flew it well, using damp merlins to keep damage off of their Sleipnirs while focusing fire to bring down first the hostile support and then the meat of the other team. Northern Coalition brutalized their opposition, also fielding the quite popular Sleipnir setup. Wonder if this will be another mirror match where both sides bring the same setup. Might not even be uncommon to see that on the second day, once certain setups start looking favorable. In any case, AAA has had their hands full in the past week, as have NC. so I am not sure who will have had the time to lock down some practices. All told I think I like AAA in this match.
19:20 Alpha Volley Union vs Pandemic Legion - Alpha Volley Union in the first weekend brought a unique setup that I am going to call "Amarr rush." Consisting of 2 Abso's, 1 Oneiros, 2 Griffins and a Rifter. Their opponents in Dark Taboo were either up way too late and started the match in shit fit ships or were just outclassed from the start, or perhaps even both. Alpha Volley was able to remove their opponents quickly either way, and secure a win. UNFORTUNATELY they are going up against Pandemic Legion, people who know what setup you are going to bring before you even bring it. Never a good place to be in the second round. Alpha Volley will have to pull out a trick of an entirely different nature against Pandemic. I wish them luck.
19:40 Agony Empire vs Exodus. - Agony Empire had a strong showing in the first week, obviously, scoring a total hell death, mainly due to their opponents being terrible (remember LSB and injector fit Tengu) than any chance to show real ability. The Agony Setup was more designed to not lose, than to win as convincingly as it did. In the second week they go against Exodus. As predicted Exodus did very well in the first week, fielding not one but two Vindicators, a setup where one seems to have been enough to rake in easy wins, well two was no different. This is going to be another one of those vaunted good fights, but how much of that will be decided before either team even makes it to the field, I'm not sure. I think Exodus has a great chance here for an upset win.
20:00 Heretic Nation vs Raiden. - The saviors of mother Amamake triumphed in round one, but I'm not sure it was due to any great skill on their part, and more of a major blunder on the part of their opponents. However despite their opponents shortcomings, Heretic nation did show up with a solid setup and to their credit, they didn't stop their opponents while they were making a mistake, and instead capitalized on it for a major win. Raiden. faced another poor opponent, who's choice of tracking disruptor on their Vigilants made about as much sense as bringing the Sabre's and then using them as tackle for Raiden. In a battle of who had the worse first round opponent I think Heretic Nation shows off their chops.
20:20 Tribal Conclave vs Fatal Ascension - Tribal Conclave led the charge against an understrength Shadow Cartel team in the first round. Had they faced off against a full powered team the results might have, and I would even venture to say, would have, been different. Vs Fatal Ascension who's first round effort made quite the CFC cheer, after wiping the field clean of opposition, but not without loss and I might add, not without some serious close calls. In the end I don't think it matters much, Tribal Conclave is meeting a surging FA team after an easy win. Only a solid setup from back to front will save them now, and I think FA has the answer.
20:40 HUN Reloaded vs THE SPACE P0LICE - HUN showed some later alliances how a Vargur should be fit with their first round victory. Smartbombs and neuts alongside Dual 650mm guns proved to be all the DPS they needed, along with a XLASB on each to mitigate incoming damage. I was foolish to choose against them in the first round. THE SPACE P0LICE managed to take out The Kadeshi, another favorite after performances years past in their first round, and in an impressive manner, arriving in four Talos' and removing the three opponent Tengu's with ease, losing only a pair of ships in the process. Helped a little by the bad piloting from the Kadeshi, running out of bounds and all that. Either way, I felt bad for not following my guy last week and betting against HUN, I won't make that mistake again, but I think I might be wrong anyways!
That concludes weekend #2, days 3 and 4 of Alliance tournament X (oh wait, they haven't been played yet, damn)
Up next : Results from the second weekend, predictions for the next weekend and a possible surprise post somewhere in between!
Enjoyed seeing the Curse a second time?
ReplyDeleteI did enjoy it, good job with your Enyo as well, started the Curse a bit close to the center that match didn't you? Would have been less of a close fight if the curse had come in at a better range, tough to keep out of range of some of that fast tackle though.
DeleteYeah in retrospect we should probably have warped everything to 50, also it appears from the replay that the curse MWD wasn't overheated (it's going much slower than the oracle)
DeleteThanks, but as an Enyo, once you have to get inside their optimal there isn't much you can do except hoping everything works out as planned.