Wednesday, July 18, 2012

AT X - Group standings breakdown

We are headed into the final weekend of the group stages, and boy are things a mess. This is a short breakdown of the different groups, standings and what each team has to do to advance, if possible.

Group A

Alliance                 Wins             Points
HUN Reloaded       2                   250
Black Legion.          1                  139
Nulli Secunda          1                  112.5
Choke Point             -                      4

A contentious group here, but only if HUN stumbles at the last weekend, and stumbles badly, they would have to score <14 points to be in grasping reach of Black Legion. Meanwhile Nulli is poised to go against Choke point who have thus far been unsuccessful in providing much opposition to anyone. Nulli, with a clean sweep there, could force Black Legion. out if MEN. lose (even with 98 points in a loss) and Nulli claims a total hell death (125 points). Choke is completely out, but if they beat Nulli they secure MEN.'s spot in the finals. This is assuming that each team brings full point setups. If Black Legion or Nulli bring shorted teams and win the math changes. This is a bracket where Nulli might take the risk of bringing a low points team in order to have a chance at advancing.

Group B

Alliance                 Wins             Points
Agony Empire         2                   250
The G0dfathers        2                   250
Fatal Ascension        -                     17
Dark Taboo              -                       4

Agony Empire and The G0dfathers have this group locked up, even though they face off this weekend, the match determines nothing as they will both be headed to the finals. FA and Dark Taboo are too far behind to catch up, short of both sides bringing extremely shorted teams, think along the lines of a dual t1 frigate duel to advance. Just for giggles, let's expand on that, both teams bring one t1 frigate (2 points), that means they automatically "spot" the other team 98 points, so whomever wins the duel, barring a tie, would get 100(match win)+98(handicap)+THD victory bonus of 25% (47.5) = 247.5 + 17 points (already earned) = 264.5 or 247.5 + 4 = 251.5. I think that FA and Dark Taboo should talk about this strategy if for no other reason that how great it would be to see. It means that both teams MIGHT, if Agony or G0d's get 0 points, the winner of FA and Dark Taboo could advance. WRONG! Minimum setup points is 50 points. And hadicaps apparently only work if the other side brings full points.
Dueling Frigates, awesome since introduction.
Except when they aren't allowed.

Group C

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Mildly Intoxicated     2                  250
TEST                        2                  250
Alpha Volley Union -                     52
Nothern Coalition.     -                      9

Another locked down group. Come on NC. and AVU, show up with t1 frigates! battle to the death. If Alpha Volley could win the Frigate duel, they would be easily able to threaten TEST or MI if they fail to score points in their matchup. UHHHH NOPE, you guys are out of it completely.

Group D

Alliance                   Wins             Points
FEARLESS.             2                   250
Verge of Collapse      1                   143
Capital Punishment    1                   125
Goonswarm                -                     48

Even Goons have a chance to advance in this group, and that'd be with 1 win and 2 losses. If FEARLESS blank Verge of Collapse this weekend, and Goonies THD Capital Punishment, they would end up with 48 (current points) + 125 (or more if they handicap) = 173 points and would slide into the finals in those most improbable way. Capital Punishment has to win in order to advance, win and hope that VoC doesn't do well vs FEARLESS. or that they do so well that FEARLESS score 0 points. It's another "death group." Where nothing is certain.

Group E

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Exodus                      2                   250
Heretic Nation           2                   201.25
Dead Terrorists          -                     71
The Gorgon Empire   -                     43

An interesting group because even though it should seem like the two teams with wins would have it on lock, in fact the handicapping theory works here as well, possibly even a smaller handicap if Heretic nation loses without any points. To lock this up Exodus and or Heretic Nation will have to score points, win or lose, OR Dead Terrorists and The Gorgon Empire fail to handicap and deny themselves.

Group F

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Darkside.                   2                  250
Raiden.                      2                  225
BricK sQuAD.          -                     22
Ev0ke                        -                       4

Darkside. and Raiden. seem to have this bracket locked up, unless one of them scores 0 points and the end game t1 frigate fight happens between Ev0ke and BricK sQuAD. Come on guys, this has to happen at least once, it's the only chance for either of you to advance. one tech 1 frig per side, DUEL ON!
Puppy says please? "Logan is fail."

Group G

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Shadow Cartel           1                   189
Suddenly Spaceships 1                   167
Gypsy Band               1                   134
PIZZA!                      1                   100

Now if all the other groups are "death" then this group is "total hell death." The winners of the two matches this weekend will likely advance. Extremely likely. Unless teams go for a complete tank setup and a win is low scoring like 2-54 points. In that case Shadow Cartel and Suddenly will both advance. Otherwise this is totally up in the air, anyone could advance.

Group H

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Red v Blue                 2                  227.5
Pandemic Legion       1                  177
Rote Kapelle              1                  138
Kill it with Fire           -                    22

I suppose I look at this group with a fair amount of love, seeing as how Rote is here, but being honest, there are tons of ways that this could go. If Rote loses to KiWF, RvB and PL advance. If RvB wins and PL doesn't score a lot of points, and a RK win over KiWF, Rote will advance with RvB to the finals. If PL wins, and RvB don't score too many points, PL and Rote would advance. If both RvB and PL score a ton of points in their match, there is a chance they would lock Rote out from advancing.


In short, of the 8 groups, B, C, E, and F are pretty much locked up for their top two seeds.
Groups A, D, and H still have some contention for the two advancing seeds.
Group G is WIDE OPEN!


  1. From the tournament rules...
    'Team rankings will be determined by Win/Loss/Draw and then by total points scored.'

    IOW there is no way to handicap yourself enough points to beat a team with more wins than you. The frigate dual thing will not work.

    1. Not to mention you have to field a minimum of 50 points in a match.

    2. You've got the handicapping wrong. If both teams bring 2 points, then neither is handicapped. The handicap calculation is actually based on the difference between what each team actually fields. So you would need to bring 2 points and beat a 100 points setup to claim the 247.5 scenario.

      And, as stated above, a 2 win team will always advance over a 1 win team, regardless of points.

  2. I'm not totally convinces that Calderus Rex is right, but I will say that's only because they seem to have a bit different rule in line there re: handicapping this year vice years past. Thus far no two teams have handicapped against each-other. Or in other words I'm likely wrong and Cald is probably right :)

    in any case, it's a moot point given that Anon(shatterer of my dreams) and Toterra are correct regarding minimum 50 points and tie breakers being wins first points second.

  3. Calderus Rex is correct even if he isn't perfectly clear.

    CCP is definitely applying the points handicapping differently this year then in the past. What they are doing is comparing the points fielded - so in the example Calderus uses the difference is 100-2 so the handicapped team is eligible for a 98 point differential. However if the 100 point team brought 50 points instead the 2 point team would only be eligible for a 48 point differential, and the 50 point team wouldn't be eligible for ANY since the other team fielded less points. So it is a bit of a case of 'low point chicken' and ONLY the team which brings the lowest number of points is eligible for any handicap point bonus at all.

    See this example which stimulated a fair bit of forum commentary on the subject as The Fourth District were a little upset that they won with 41 points fielded but didn't get ANY handicap points because Manifest Destiny. only brought 36 points in ships to the match. Fourth walked away with 62.5 points only and didn't qualify for groups.

    All of that math is pretty irrelevant though due to the 50 point limit anyways as I pointed out above. (Sorry for the Anon but I can't be bothered to sign up or anything!)

    Rynnik (an Agony dude)