AT X - Group stages, Day 7

Good lord I was bad last week!

Saturday 21st July - Day 7

15:00 Nulli Seconda vs Choke Point - Nulli's got to win this in order to advance, well win this and hope for a good outcome of the next match. I think they aren't just grasping at straws this time.

15:20 HUN Reloaded vs Black Legion. - HUN's in pretty much either way, it would be very difficult impossible for HUN to be removed from either the first or second spot in the group at this point. MEN. are too proud to go quietly, this will be an epic fight.

15:40 Fatal Ascension vs Dark Taboo - Unless these guys agree to a t1 frig vs t1 frig fight in advance, and show up with just two t1 frigs, there's no way either can advance. So as such, I don't really care :( damn these matches.

16:00 The G0dfathers vs Agony Empire - It's a match of the sealed deal. Given both sides show up and get a few kills, it doesn't matter WHAT FA and Dark Taboo do. Agony empire has been very strong so far, so I wish our Syndicate brosefs luck.

16:20 Mildly Intoxicated vs Test Alliance Please Ignore - TEST just hasn't stopped winning, but it doesn't really matter now does it? Both the top two here are locked in.

16:40 Northern Coalition. vs Alpha Volley Union - Locked out and looking in, not sure this match means anything at this point, Could just be a source of pride for one or the other to get A win this group stage. One almost certainly will (in before draw)

17:00 Goonswarm Federation vs Capital Punishment. - Now here's an important match (finally). Capital Punishment has to win in order to have any shot of advancing. Goons are already out, so do the GOONS play sandbagger to Capital Punishment, or try for the win? I like the odds of Capital Punishment here. Goons miss the finals for another year.

17:20 Verge of Collapse vs FEARLESS. - Also a relevant match (two in a row, must be good planning). Verge of Collapse is struggling to hold off Capital Punishment in this last round, while FEARLESS. has clenched a spot in the finals either way, well barring some handicapping and being killed without scoring any points in their match.

BREAK

18:20 Dead Terrorists vs The Gorgon Empire - Both of these teams are out of it but could still provide a good fight, they have made it thus far, might as well go out with a bang and a win right? I like Dead Terrorists in this matchup.

18:40 Exodus. vs Heretic Nation - Both go through already but Exodus. has it out to kill everyone. Should be an entertaining match either way, but I still like the Exodus guys.

19:00 Ev0ke vs BricK sQuAD - Done and done-er. I thought Ev0ke would do better in the group stages, but that has just not turned out to be true. They had some decent setups on paper, but the teams they faced dispatched them with what looked like ease. Same for Brick Squad, I quite liked their Vindicator setup vs Darkside.

19:20 Raiden. vs DarkSide. - Well these two have it locked up. I would say that DarkSide. will care to win this one, but in the end it doesn't matter.

19:40 Gypsy Band vs Shadow Cartel - Look two matches in a row, where both really matter. This is the only group to split 1 win each. If there was ever a time to get a win, now is that time. Gypsy Band lost their Flagship last weekend, but I doubt that is their last gasp. Shadow Cartel has brought a variety of setups, and thus are hard to predict. I honestly get the feeling that Shadow pulls it out in the end, and goes through with a Victory here.

20:00 Suddenly Spaceships. vs PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY - Facing them will be the winner of this match. Suddenly is fresh off their win against Gypsy band, but PZZA has brought solid setups in every match, they just rolled the dice wrong and faced a TD heavy team that ate them alive in the first round of the group stages. I might be wrong, but you can never be too wrong with PIZZA!

20:20 Rote Kapelle vs Kill It With Fire - I think we all know what way I will be voting here. However Rote Kapelle is fresh from their dramatic victory against PL, will there be overconfidence headed into this match, perhaps some underestimation of the KiWF team that might lead to a loss? All the teams who have made it this far are still dangerous.

20:40 Pandemic Legion vs RvB - Some might have trouble admitting it, but RvB is for real. I doubt that PL will be taking them lightly, as a win here for PL seals the part of the standings that they can influence and just have to hope to score enough points to knock out Rote after they win. One of the most interesting matches if Rote wins will be this one. I can earnestly say GO RvB, since by winning, they remove PL from the picture if RK wins.

Barring any complications:
Up next : FINALS - No analysis, just picks. Recap of ATX, Also a fittings breakdown of the Final match! Exciting stuff.

AT X - Group standings breakdown

We are headed into the final weekend of the group stages, and boy are things a mess. This is a short breakdown of the different groups, standings and what each team has to do to advance, if possible.

Group A

Alliance                 Wins             Points

HUN Reloaded       2                   250

Black Legion.          1                  139

Nulli Secunda          1                  112.5

Choke Point             -                      4

A contentious group here, but only if HUN stumbles at the last weekend, and stumbles badly, they would have to score <14 points to be in grasping reach of Black Legion. Meanwhile Nulli is poised to go against Choke point who have thus far been unsuccessful in providing much opposition to anyone. Nulli, with a clean sweep there, could force Black Legion. out if MEN. lose (even with 98 points in a loss) and Nulli claims a total hell death (125 points). Choke is completely out, but if they beat Nulli they secure MEN.'s spot in the finals. This is assuming that each team brings full point setups. If Black Legion or Nulli bring shorted teams and win the math changes. This is a bracket where Nulli might take the risk of bringing a low points team in order to have a chance at advancing.

Group B

Alliance                 Wins             Points

Agony Empire         2                   250

The G0dfathers        2                   250

Fatal Ascension        -                     17

Dark Taboo              -                       4

Agony Empire and The G0dfathers have this group locked up, even though they face off this weekend, the match determines nothing as they will both be headed to the finals. FA and Dark Taboo are too far behind to catch up, short of both sides bringing extremely shorted teams, think along the lines of a dual t1 frigate duel to advance. Just for giggles, let's expand on that, both teams bring one t1 frigate (2 points), that means they automatically "spot" the other team 98 points, so whomever wins the duel, barring a tie, would get 100(match win)+98(handicap)+THD victory bonus of 25% (47.5) = 247.5 + 17 points (already earned) = 264.5 or 247.5 + 4 = 251.5. I think that FA and Dark Taboo should talk about this strategy if for no other reason that how great it would be to see. It means that both teams MIGHT, if Agony or G0d's get 0 points, the winner of FA and Dark Taboo could advance. WRONG! Minimum setup points is 50 points. And hadicaps apparently only work if the other side brings full points.

Dueling Frigates, awesome since introduction.
Except when they aren't allowed.

Group C

Alliance                   Wins             Points

Mildly Intoxicated     2                  250

TEST                        2                  250

Alpha Volley Union -                     52

Nothern Coalition.     -                      9

Another locked down group. Come on NC. and AVU, show up with t1 frigates! battle to the death. If Alpha Volley could win the Frigate duel, they would be easily able to threaten TEST or MI if they fail to score points in their matchup. UHHHH NOPE, you guys are out of it completely.

Group D

Alliance                   Wins             Points

FEARLESS.             2                   250

Verge of Collapse      1                   143

Capital Punishment    1                   125

Goonswarm                -                     48

Even Goons have a chance to advance in this group, and that'd be with 1 win and 2 losses. If FEARLESS blank Verge of Collapse this weekend, and Goonies THD Capital Punishment, they would end up with 48 (current points) + 125 (or more if they handicap) = 173 points and would slide into the finals in those most improbable way. Capital Punishment has to win in order to advance, win and hope that VoC doesn't do well vs FEARLESS. or that they do so well that FEARLESS score 0 points. It's another "death group." Where nothing is certain.

Group E

Alliance                   Wins             Points

Exodus                      2                   250

Heretic Nation           2                   201.25

Dead Terrorists          -                     71

The Gorgon Empire   -                     43

An interesting group because even though it should seem like the two teams with wins would have it on lock, in fact the handicapping theory works here as well, possibly even a smaller handicap if Heretic nation loses without any points. To lock this up Exodus and or Heretic Nation will have to score points, win or lose, OR Dead Terrorists and The Gorgon Empire fail to handicap and deny themselves.

Group F

Alliance                   Wins             Points

Darkside.                   2                  250

Raiden.                      2                  225

BricK sQuAD.          -                     22

Ev0ke                        -                       4

Darkside. and Raiden. seem to have this bracket locked up, unless one of them scores 0 points and the end game t1 frigate fight happens between Ev0ke and BricK sQuAD. Come on guys, this has to happen at least once, it's the only chance for either of you to advance. one tech 1 frig per side, DUEL ON!

Puppy says please? "Logan is fail."

Group G

Alliance                   Wins             Points

Shadow Cartel           1                   189

Suddenly Spaceships 1                   167

Gypsy Band               1                   134

PIZZA!                      1                   100

Now if all the other groups are "death" then this group is "total hell death." The winners of the two matches this weekend will likely advance. Extremely likely. Unless teams go for a complete tank setup and a win is low scoring like 2-54 points. In that case Shadow Cartel and Suddenly will both advance. Otherwise this is totally up in the air, anyone could advance.

Group H

Alliance                   Wins             Points

Red v Blue                 2                  227.5

Pandemic Legion       1                  177

Rote Kapelle              1                  138

Kill it with Fire           -                    22

I suppose I look at this group with a fair amount of love, seeing as how Rote is here, but being honest, there are tons of ways that this could go. If Rote loses to KiWF, RvB and PL advance. If RvB wins and PL doesn't score a lot of points, and a RK win over KiWF, Rote will advance with RvB to the finals. If PL wins, and RvB don't score too many points, PL and Rote would advance. If both RvB and PL score a ton of points in their match, there is a chance they would lock Rote out from advancing.

Summary

In short, of the 8 groups, B, C, E, and F are pretty much locked up for their top two seeds.

Groups A, D, and H still have some contention for the two advancing seeds.

Group G is WIDE OPEN!

AT X - Group Stage Days 5 and 6

There's one thing I know about the group stages, and that is that the first two weeks now mean officially nothing. Setups, good bad or indifferent, are now out the window. People who looked weak, can show up in a big way in the 12 man stages.

Effective setups go from a small handful to a huge plethora. Some might argue that the setups become even more rock vs paper vs scissors. For me, this is where the real art of finding and testing and practicing good setups with good pilots shows up. Finding a setup that manages to meld the strengths to be good across the board are few and far between, and even more difficult, when a good setup is found, how do you keep it secret, how often do you test it?

What will 'the' defining 12 man setup of ATX be? and who will field it? Since I don't know, I can only hazard guesses. I will explain choices when I have a logical reason, otherwise free for all! Subtitle to this is that I have had a pretty rough week and can't put in the full effort for this post. Sorry.

Saturday 14th July - Day 5

15:00 Nulli Secunda vs Black Legion. - neither team showed up every match. MEN. have a great group of pilots at their disposal, but in the end I think that pushes them over the top in the fight.

15:20 HUN Reloaded vs Choke Point - Looks like HUN have their eyes set on another championship, only time will tell if they are as dedicated in 12v12 as they were in 6v6.

15:40 Fatal Ascension vs Agony Empire - Controversial decision here, as FA spent some time in Syndicate, losing ships to Agony Empire, so on that score, Agony has the upper hand. But FA's been doing pretty well so far. Well I guess this is their time to prove me wrong or right.

16:00 The G0dfathers vs Dark Taboo - No idea why. Both solid teams, both good fights in their 6v6's.

16:20 Mildly Intoxicated vs Alpha Volley Union - Mildly Intoxicated showed off some inventive setups and good piloting. I like their chances here.

16:40 Nothern Coalition. vs Test Alliance Please Ignore - TEST barely makes it through to the group stages, suppose I just said it didn't matter, but I still like NC. here.

17:00 Goonswarm Federation vs FEARLESS. - Did FEARLESS throw their match, or did they just mess up, I have no idea. What I don't like to see is Vindicators being thrown away, Goons did the best with their Vindi's.

17:20 Verge of Collapse vs Capital Punishment. - Brutal match ups for Cap Pun all around, in one of the hardest groups, Verge of Collapse has impressed me throughout, will be an interesting fight, that's for sure.

18:20 Dead Terrorists vs Heretic Nation - Gotta love the Defenders of Amamake!

18:40 Exodus. vs The Gorgon Empire - Exodus impressed me with their 6 man setups throughout the two first weeks, and I know from experience that their 12 man setups are no joke either.

19:00 Ev0ke vs DarkSide. - Gonna be a close match, DarkSide. is still showing the same amount of competence from last year.

19:20 Raiden. vs BricK sQuAD. - Brick manages to win when everyone thinks they won't.

19:40 Gypsy Band vs PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY - Best of luck to PZZA who swept up with one win and a loss going against Gypsy Band who won both of their matches in the first two weeks.

20:00 Suddenly Spaceships. vs Shadow Cartel - This one I literally had to toss a coin, it was heads Shadow Cartel and tails Suddenly Spaceships. Pilots from both sides are well disciplined and smart, both sides setups have been intelligent and more importantly, well flown.

20:20 Rote Kapelle vs RvB - Going to be another great match for us. Red V Blue put out some great teams in the first stages, but my heart still lies with Rote Kapelle, and always will. Think we have the slight edge on experience, but are indeed infiltrated by RvB alts!

20:40 Pandemic Legion vs Kill It With Fire - Man, what to say here? I really hope Kill It With Fire wins this matchup. It would force "our" group to re-evaluate how the group stages are going to play out. But in the context of the Alliance tournament, can you really bet against PL?

Sunday 15th July - Day 6

15:00 Black Legion. vs Choke Point - MEN. have been on again off again, and as much as I want to have a bromance with their alliance, I am just not 100 percent sold on them this tourney. However I feel the same way about Choke Point, especially since I found their first match to be problem filled.

15:20 HUN Reloaded vs Nulli Seconda - HUN was looking good in the 6 mans, much more of their usual bad-ass selves. Nulli on the other hand, brought BROADSWORDS into their last match, and barely won their first match. The jury is still out on if they were thrown their match, but either way luck plays more of a role in their current set of victories than any skill.

15:40 Agony Empire vs Dark Taboo -

16:00 The G0dfathers vs Fatal Ascension -

16:20 Alpha Volley Union vs Test Alliance Please Ignore -

16:40 Nothern Coalition. vs Mildly Intoxicated -

17:00 FEARLESS. vs Capital Punishment. -

17:20 Verge of Collapse vs Goonswarm Federation - Someone has to end the domination of Goons thus far.

18:20 Heretic Nation vs The Gorgon Empire -

18:40 Exodus. vs Dead Terrorists - Gogo Exodus!

19:00 DarkSide. vs BricK sQuAD. - Darkside. are still pretty scary this year, but this could go either way, as BricK sQuAD has had some pretty good last minute success.

19:20 Raiden. vs Ev0ke - Ev0ke surprised me last week, looks like they will win this time, without the surprise.

19:40 PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY vs Shadow Cartel. - First round opponents, and as usual I hope they kill them all.

20:00 Suddenly Spaceships. vs Gypsy Band -

20:20 RvB vs Kill It With Fire -

20:40 Pandemic Legion vs Rote Kapelle - Jesus, what a match up. Eternal hopefuls vs proven success. Great way to end the weekend.

Up Next : Group Stage Finals predictions, maybe that post about ASB's.