Monday, July 23, 2012

AT X - A champion is revealed!

VERGE OF COLLAPSE - AT X CHAMPIONS!


Wow, what a final day. I wasn't able to watch all the fights, but the ones I did catch were each very very good. Everyone who made it to the final day should be very proud, just the simple time and energy needed to get that far is staggering.

My "bracketology" needed a little work, but with the exception of a few wrong turns early on, I got the long game correct, but only on half of the bracket. HUN did beat PL and force them out of the tourney right where I expected them to. I suppose if you replace Verge with Rote Kapelle then suddenly my bracket looks a whole lot better. I would have looked like a genius if I had said "the winner of Rote v Verge will win the tourney." I'm not quiet that smart :)

I could act all "I expected Verge to do well." But honestly I didn't.

Well, at least not until I watched the fight with Rote, and at that point it seemed that Verge would go all the way. Their piloting was superb, and WarGod as their logistics was just simply amazing. Yes he made some mistakes and wasn't perfect, but... they managed to win. Props to them for winning ATX!

In the end they pulled off an amazing run to victory, facing one of the toughest, if not THE toughest path to the finals than any team in history. This year there were many more competitive teams than in the past, and next year the route will be even harder as a likely pretty mad GENOS and Outbreak teams will return to the running.

HUN as well had a tough time, but they seemed to find a setup that worked for them, and stuck with it to the end. Commendable in my book, and one of the setups I will try to break down in more detail later if I feel so inclined.

As for the AT prizes this year, I have always thought that the winners should get 50 of the cruiser sized prizes as well as 25-50 of the frig sized prizes. It just seems like that would give more reason to actual win and alleviate the thing that really bothers me, the desire to look at the prizes and choose to win one or the other in order to get the better ship/prize. Despite Raivi's comments, I don't think the "Osprey" prize is very impressive, at least not as impressive as the AF for second place is.

In any case,

Standout matches in no particular order:


Pretty much every match of the Verge of Collapse team throughout the last day. From the bitter to swallow, for me, win over the Rote team, down to their next Match with MI, as they flew around trying to chase down their targets. Then the match vs Exodus who arrived with the same basic setup, MOAR DPS! I have long championed Exodus due not only their skill but also their dedication to practicing with us, all the way to the Final vs the seemingly invincible Vargur setup. Verge pushed through that fight as well, and into the final vs HUN. That match was full of surprises where Sleipnirs managed to sweep out the Vargurs and secure Verge's first Alliance tournament participation and first title.

But each winning team can look back on their match with pride:

HUN brought a Vargur based setup 8 times total before losing, defeating the most 'hard' counter they could face, the PL Widow ECM swarm, looking invincible up until the final match.

Pandemic looked great in their wins vs TEST and Darkside.. Their ECM widow setup performing better than any Widow/ECM based setup prior to that, before falling to the HUN Vargur's.

Exodus showed off their skill in their matches against the Agony Empire 'baited' turtle team, I mean come on, who wasn't screaming at that match until the end begging them to switch damage. Looked like they were going to lose four points to zero! Exodus' next match against Nulli in the elite 8 was a spectacle, QUAD windicators vs Bhaalgorns for all the marbles.

In fact I would say that perhaps even a little biased, but in many ways, ATX proved to be the best tournament thus far. Now if only CCP would get the replays on the AT site, going to be tough, given the level of partying that probably followed after another amazingly successful AT.

Indeed, where would the AT be without the full and continued support of the AT team over at CCP, so a special thanks to those people for sacrificing their weekends, cherished time off, and in some cases coming off of vacation just to speak directly to the viewers and players of Eve Online. This year's revamped match overview eased the viewing of the matches, providing a clear readout of EWAR and special effects, while adding even more information in the form of speed, pilot names, and the ever important health bars. A hearty thank you for a job well done to those guys.

On a final, more personal note, I would like to thank the Rote Kapelle team as well. Apathetic Brent was our team Captain, along with a selection of capable co-captains, Sakura Nihil, Namami, Proxay, Dradius, and the rest of our team, for making it an exciting and involving time for everyone in RK.

Next up : Who knows!

Saturday, July 21, 2012

AT X - Finals Predictions.

Whew! What a crazy day. I have to admit that I was really pulling for RvB over PL in the final match, but it just wasn't meant to be for them this year.

Other highlights included some incredibly brutal matches, and still some halfway decent throw away fights like the fight between FA and Dark Taboo. FA brought a thorax heavy setup seemingly paying homage to the now old Star Fraction vs Band of Brothers match-up.

My totals were 10 right out of 16, none to shabby for such a tough round to guess since there were so many matches that were for little more than just honor. That's 62.5%.

Bah, who am I kidding, Rote made it back into the final day, after quite the DPS heavy match against KiWF, and then hoping on the sidelines that the match between PL and RvB fell in our favor. I could almost feel the angst radiating from fellow Rote members as the last match went down. Even the few seconds where PL holds fire on the Eos of RvB made me honestly consider them throwing the match to keep us out. I think they just want the chance of a rematch to avenge their earlier loss vs us rather than face off with RvB again.

On to the Final day. I guess this is the Eve version of "Bracketology" familiar to us Northern Americans for the NCAA March madness tournament. The idea is you choose the winner of the tourney before any of the matches get played, at least here we have some background.

Fair warning, I am terrible in bracketology, further, I make one mistake and it could be all over.

Special 16

HUN Reloaded vs FEARLESS. - HUN's been eating well all tourney.

The G0dFathers vs Heretic Nation

Pandemic Legion vs TEST

Darkside. vs PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY

Mildly Intoxicated vs Raiden.

Verge of Collapse vs Rote Kapelle


Exodus. vs Agony Empire - Our training partners vs our Syndicate fellows. Probably the hardest match for me to call thus far. Exodus in a nail biter.

Shadow Cartel vs Nulli Secunda

Wow that's a lot of left sidedness.

Elite 8

HUN Reloaded vs The G0dfathers

Pandemic Legion vs Darkside. - Wow, what a matchup this is going to be, like two Juggernauts slugging it out for ten minutes, it's going to be a fight that nobody is going to want to look away from. I can't wait.

Mildly Intoxicated vs Rote Kapelle -Well this is an interested match, in AT9 we faced a lot of the Mildly Intoxicated guys when they were still in Black Legion. Looking at the schedules their departure may have cost MEN a chance to get this far. It's going to be epic. This time we come out on top.

Exodus. vs Shadow Cartel - Can't go against our training partners, but if I was going to this would be the match where it would happen. Very close match up, lots of skill and ability on both sides.

Final 4

HUN Reloaded vs Pandemic Legion - Yes it's controversial, yes I could be entirely wrong, but both HUN and PL have been playing great all tourney, it's going to be a key fight for both of them, HUN has been so focused on making it into the finals, repeating as champs that is anyone is going to defeat PL, it's going to be them.

Rote Kapelle vs Exodus - Wowza.

FINALS

HUN Reloaded vs Rote Kapelle - Long time wishers vs successful champs. In a battle of the who will be's I think Rote surprises and wins the championship.

ATX Champs.

Rote Kapelle

Now I predicted we would win similar to this back in AT8 and let's just say it didn't work out to well for me. I wish for better luck this time!

To view my picks in bracket form, look here

Upcoming : ATX final results (OMG!)

Thursday, July 19, 2012

AT X - Group stages, Day 7


Good lord I was bad last week!

Saturday 21st July - Day 7

15:00 Nulli Seconda vs Choke Point - Nulli's got to win this in order to advance, well win this and hope for a good outcome of the next match. I think they aren't just grasping at straws this time.

15:20 HUN Reloaded vs Black Legion. - HUN's in pretty much either way, it would be very difficult impossible for HUN to be removed from either the first or second spot in the group at this point. MEN. are too proud to go quietly, this will be an epic fight.

15:40 Fatal Ascension vs Dark Taboo - Unless these guys agree to a t1 frig vs t1 frig fight in advance, and show up with just two t1 frigs, there's no way either can advance. So as such, I don't really care :( damn these matches.

16:00 The G0dfathers vs Agony Empire - It's a match of the sealed deal. Given both sides show up and get a few kills, it doesn't matter WHAT FA and Dark Taboo do. Agony empire has been very strong so far, so I wish our Syndicate brosefs luck.

16:20 Mildly Intoxicated vs Test Alliance Please Ignore - TEST just hasn't stopped winning, but it doesn't really matter now does it? Both the top two here are locked in.

16:40 Northern Coalition. vs Alpha Volley Union - Locked out and looking in, not sure this match means anything at this point, Could just be a source of pride for one or the other to get A win this group stage. One almost certainly will (in before draw)

17:00 Goonswarm Federation vs Capital Punishment. - Now here's an important match (finally). Capital Punishment has to win in order to have any shot of advancing. Goons are already out, so do the GOONS play sandbagger to Capital Punishment, or try for the win? I like the odds of Capital Punishment here. Goons miss the finals for another year.

17:20 Verge of Collapse vs FEARLESS. - Also a relevant match (two in a row, must be good planning). Verge of Collapse is struggling to hold off Capital Punishment in this last round, while FEARLESS. has clenched a spot in the finals either way, well barring some handicapping and being killed without scoring any points in their match.

BREAK

18:20 Dead Terrorists vs The Gorgon Empire - Both of these teams are out of it but could still provide a good fight, they have made it thus far, might as well go out with a bang and a win right? I like Dead Terrorists in this matchup.

18:40 Exodus. vs Heretic Nation - Both go through already but Exodus. has it out to kill everyone. Should be an entertaining match either way, but I still like the Exodus guys.

19:00 Ev0ke vs BricK sQuAD - Done and done-er. I thought Ev0ke would do better in the group stages, but that has just not turned out to be true. They had some decent setups on paper, but the teams they faced dispatched them with what looked like ease. Same for Brick Squad, I quite liked their Vindicator setup vs Darkside.

19:20 Raiden. vs DarkSide. - Well these two have it locked up. I would say that DarkSide. will care to win this one, but in the end it doesn't matter.

19:40 Gypsy Band vs Shadow Cartel - Look two matches in a row, where both really matter. This is the only group to split 1 win each. If there was ever a time to get a win, now is that time. Gypsy Band lost their Flagship last weekend, but I doubt that is their last gasp. Shadow Cartel has brought a variety of setups, and thus are hard to predict. I honestly get the feeling that Shadow pulls it out in the end, and goes through with a Victory here.

20:00 Suddenly Spaceships. vs PERCUSSIVE PIZZA TIME DIPLOMACY - Facing them will be the winner of this match. Suddenly is fresh off their win against Gypsy band, but PZZA has brought solid setups in every match, they just rolled the dice wrong and faced a TD heavy team that ate them alive in the first round of the group stages. I might be wrong, but you can never be too wrong with PIZZA!

20:20 Rote Kapelle vs Kill It With Fire - I think we all know what way I will be voting here. However Rote Kapelle is fresh from their dramatic victory against PL, will there be overconfidence headed into this match, perhaps some underestimation of the KiWF team that might lead to a loss? All the teams who have made it this far are still dangerous.

20:40 Pandemic Legion vs RvB - Some might have trouble admitting it, but RvB is for real. I doubt that PL will be taking them lightly, as a win here for PL seals the part of the standings that they can influence and just have to hope to score enough points to knock out Rote after they win. One of the most interesting matches if Rote wins will be this one. I can earnestly say GO RvB, since by winning, they remove PL from the picture if RK wins.

Barring any complications:
Up next : FINALS - No analysis, just picks. Recap of ATX, Also a fittings breakdown of the Final match! Exciting stuff.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

AT X - Group standings breakdown

We are headed into the final weekend of the group stages, and boy are things a mess. This is a short breakdown of the different groups, standings and what each team has to do to advance, if possible.

Group A

Alliance                 Wins             Points
HUN Reloaded       2                   250
Black Legion.          1                  139
Nulli Secunda          1                  112.5
Choke Point             -                      4

A contentious group here, but only if HUN stumbles at the last weekend, and stumbles badly, they would have to score <14 points to be in grasping reach of Black Legion. Meanwhile Nulli is poised to go against Choke point who have thus far been unsuccessful in providing much opposition to anyone. Nulli, with a clean sweep there, could force Black Legion. out if MEN. lose (even with 98 points in a loss) and Nulli claims a total hell death (125 points). Choke is completely out, but if they beat Nulli they secure MEN.'s spot in the finals. This is assuming that each team brings full point setups. If Black Legion or Nulli bring shorted teams and win the math changes. This is a bracket where Nulli might take the risk of bringing a low points team in order to have a chance at advancing.

Group B

Alliance                 Wins             Points
Agony Empire         2                   250
The G0dfathers        2                   250
Fatal Ascension        -                     17
Dark Taboo              -                       4

Agony Empire and The G0dfathers have this group locked up, even though they face off this weekend, the match determines nothing as they will both be headed to the finals. FA and Dark Taboo are too far behind to catch up, short of both sides bringing extremely shorted teams, think along the lines of a dual t1 frigate duel to advance. Just for giggles, let's expand on that, both teams bring one t1 frigate (2 points), that means they automatically "spot" the other team 98 points, so whomever wins the duel, barring a tie, would get 100(match win)+98(handicap)+THD victory bonus of 25% (47.5) = 247.5 + 17 points (already earned) = 264.5 or 247.5 + 4 = 251.5. I think that FA and Dark Taboo should talk about this strategy if for no other reason that how great it would be to see. It means that both teams MIGHT, if Agony or G0d's get 0 points, the winner of FA and Dark Taboo could advance. WRONG! Minimum setup points is 50 points. And hadicaps apparently only work if the other side brings full points.
Dueling Frigates, awesome since introduction.
Except when they aren't allowed.

Group C

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Mildly Intoxicated     2                  250
TEST                        2                  250
Alpha Volley Union -                     52
Nothern Coalition.     -                      9

Another locked down group. Come on NC. and AVU, show up with t1 frigates! battle to the death. If Alpha Volley could win the Frigate duel, they would be easily able to threaten TEST or MI if they fail to score points in their matchup. UHHHH NOPE, you guys are out of it completely.

Group D

Alliance                   Wins             Points
FEARLESS.             2                   250
Verge of Collapse      1                   143
Capital Punishment    1                   125
Goonswarm                -                     48

Even Goons have a chance to advance in this group, and that'd be with 1 win and 2 losses. If FEARLESS blank Verge of Collapse this weekend, and Goonies THD Capital Punishment, they would end up with 48 (current points) + 125 (or more if they handicap) = 173 points and would slide into the finals in those most improbable way. Capital Punishment has to win in order to advance, win and hope that VoC doesn't do well vs FEARLESS. or that they do so well that FEARLESS score 0 points. It's another "death group." Where nothing is certain.

Group E

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Exodus                      2                   250
Heretic Nation           2                   201.25
Dead Terrorists          -                     71
The Gorgon Empire   -                     43

An interesting group because even though it should seem like the two teams with wins would have it on lock, in fact the handicapping theory works here as well, possibly even a smaller handicap if Heretic nation loses without any points. To lock this up Exodus and or Heretic Nation will have to score points, win or lose, OR Dead Terrorists and The Gorgon Empire fail to handicap and deny themselves.

Group F

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Darkside.                   2                  250
Raiden.                      2                  225
BricK sQuAD.          -                     22
Ev0ke                        -                       4

Darkside. and Raiden. seem to have this bracket locked up, unless one of them scores 0 points and the end game t1 frigate fight happens between Ev0ke and BricK sQuAD. Come on guys, this has to happen at least once, it's the only chance for either of you to advance. one tech 1 frig per side, DUEL ON!
Puppy says please? "Logan is fail."

Group G

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Shadow Cartel           1                   189
Suddenly Spaceships 1                   167
Gypsy Band               1                   134
PIZZA!                      1                   100

Now if all the other groups are "death" then this group is "total hell death." The winners of the two matches this weekend will likely advance. Extremely likely. Unless teams go for a complete tank setup and a win is low scoring like 2-54 points. In that case Shadow Cartel and Suddenly will both advance. Otherwise this is totally up in the air, anyone could advance.

Group H

Alliance                   Wins             Points
Red v Blue                 2                  227.5
Pandemic Legion       1                  177
Rote Kapelle              1                  138
Kill it with Fire           -                    22

I suppose I look at this group with a fair amount of love, seeing as how Rote is here, but being honest, there are tons of ways that this could go. If Rote loses to KiWF, RvB and PL advance. If RvB wins and PL doesn't score a lot of points, and a RK win over KiWF, Rote will advance with RvB to the finals. If PL wins, and RvB don't score too many points, PL and Rote would advance. If both RvB and PL score a ton of points in their match, there is a chance they would lock Rote out from advancing.

Summary

In short, of the 8 groups, B, C, E, and F are pretty much locked up for their top two seeds.
Groups A, D, and H still have some contention for the two advancing seeds.
Group G is WIDE OPEN!